While Iran’s position has risen dramatically, America’s power has declined. The anniversary of the 12-day war finds the United States in its weakest strategic posture since the fall of Saigon in 1975.
The harm to America’s “superpower” image is irrevocable. For decades, Washington presented a sense of military superiority and unstoppable victory. That aura was shattered in the sky over Iran and the waters of the Strait of Hormuz.
The enemy failed to meet any of its stated objectives. It was obliged to change its military objectives from “overthrow the Islamic Republic” to “prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons,” which Iran has frequently and openly said it does not seek.
Trump’s humiliation in the Strait of Hormuz is regarded as one of the worst strategic disasters. The United States, the world’s maritime powerhouse, has ceded operational control of the planet’s most important waterway to a non-naval state. The harm to America’s global power projection is permanent. Every ally navy around the world has already taken note.
Economic and material losses are staggering, including hundreds of billions of dollars in direct and indirect costs; the depletion of costly strategic reserves – air defense missiles, precision-guided munitions, and naval assets – with no prospect of replenishment at a rate comparable to Iranian asymmetric resupply. The US military industrial base, which was already pressured by Ukraine and Israel, has been further weakened.
The loss of credibility with allies is likely the most serious long-term consequence. Persian Gulf monarchs that paid billions for US protection saw American forces retreat, their air defense systems bypassed, and their territory vulnerable to Iranian vengeance. The statement “all options are on the table” has been exposed as rhetorical theater. When the United States repeatedly backed down from re-entering the war with Iran, concluding the 40-day conflict with little gains, every regional ally recognized the new reality.
Domestic and international dishonor is complete. Western and regional commentators, including those hostile to Iran, have been obliged to admit that Tehran has taken the initiative in both war and peace. Inside Iran, the fall of US prestige has been especially catastrophic for Western-oriented groups that have long fostered America’s image as a “benevolent hegemon.” That erroneous narrative is now absolutely dead.
At the time of writing, Trump has purportedly received signals of a final agreement with Iran, which can only be described as desperation. His fresh threats to attack Iranian targets were immediately dropped Thursday evening. It resembles the position of a desperate gambler who has run out of chips.
Several structural facts must be considered in the current US pursuit of a deal.
First, after failing militarily, the US is now adopting a meek diplomatic stance. Washington thinks Iran would agree to parameters that allow the US to declare a face-saving withdrawal. However, make no mistake: any agreement sought by America is not about mutual gain, but about preserving the residual shreds of US credibility in the region.
Second, the United States is waging an all-out battle against disinformation. Officials in the Trump administration use social media posts, contradicting news releases, and twisted narratives to present a false image of “achievement.” They’ll say they “prevented” something worse or that Iran “conceded” something. These are propaganda weapons directed at domestic and allied audiences that are unsupported by facts.
Third, any arrangement with Iran should not be interpreted as a partisan maneuver by Trump or the Republican Party. This is a bigger, nonpartisan structural bid by the entire US machinery, including the deep state, the military establishment, and international Zionist networks.
Political figures are visible actors, but the apparatus that supports them is national and international. The withdrawals we observe are tactical maneuvers aimed at maintaining Western power credibility over the long term.
Iran can not afford to misinterpret a tactical pause for a strategic shift.
In an effort to free itself from the mess it created, the US is currently negotiating a compromise.
