Watchman

The Trump-Iran Agreement Is Not Actually a ‘Deal’ at All,or even a deal to have a deal, but rather a memorandum of understanding staking out a framework to discuss a deal over the next 60 days.

War is meant to end on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hormuz is supposed to open, and the US blockade withdrawn within 30 days in a type of oil-for-oil swap that we have repeatedly mentioned here. According to Iranian authorities, Hormuz transits will take place under Iranian auspices, but the US side continues to claim no tolls. According to Axios, US sources have stated that sanctions relief will occur following the reopening of Hormuz, although there appears to be disagreement on the release of blocked cash, and Iranian sources claim reparations of up to $300 billion in value will be required. If genuine, that would be the entire enchilada of TACOs, with the US consenting to terms that allowed it to resume bombing only a few weeks ago. On the other side, it’s possible that the terms are much more beneficial to the US, and the Iranians are just attempting to save face.

Anadolu English (@anadoluagency) reported on June 15, 2026 that US Vice President Vance stated that the amount of $24 billion in blocked cash ‘doesn’t exist anywhere’ in US discussions with Iranians, calling the claim’misrepresentation by hardliners’.

Crucially, there appear to be no guarantees on the nuclear issue, other than Iran’s vow not to seek a nuclear weapon and to engage in discussions within the next 60 days. Given that the nuclear program was the sole cause of the conflict in the first place, there is still plenty of room for everything to go apart. The US midterm elections take place 81 days after the 60-day negotiating session has expired. Could we expect a couple more can-kick extensions during that time? Donald Trump announced the end of the agreement on Truth Social, writing, “Ships of the globe, start your engines. Allow the oil to flow. Start your engines, for the race is on to replenish the global energy supply chain while we can.

There is still plenty of fog of war surrounding terms. So, what do we know? Trump Lies A Lot!