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The virus is a Pestilence, there’s no other word for it, prepare for HELL ON EARTH…
Because of government lies, we have to assume that the crisis is more pervasive than we know. And so far the average American is oblivious to it...
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Have NOT Got The Memo Yet, “Pestilences” Has No Cure…
Up-Date: 3/13/20 @ 1:35 PM CST Iran Is Building so Many Burial Pits That Satellite Photos Were Able to Detect Them. satellite photos were able to detect them
The country has reported at least 10,075 confirmed coronavirus cases and 429 deaths, the third-highest number of cases after mainland China and Italy.
The satellite images from March 1 and March 8, put out by Maxar Technologies, appear to show an increase in activity inside the Behesht-e Masoumeh cemetery in Qom. The images show what looks like two fresh trenches of graves on March 1, with more excavation after that.
According to Islamic tradition, bodies are supposed to be buried quickly after death. But Behesht-e Masoumeh morgue director Ali Ramezani told Iranian state TV earlier this month that burials were being delayed as testing for the virus takes time. And while corpses are traditionally washed with soap and water before burial in Iran, two medical workers in Qom told CNN that in some cases precautions related to the outbreak are preventing staff from observing traditional Islamic guidelines for burial.
A video from the morgue showed dozens of bodies sheathed in black bags on the floor of an Iranian morgue, while workers in protective suits and masks busily walk among them.
For a while now I have been hearing it said that Americans are “in a panic” over the coronavirus outbreak in the US and that mainstream media outlets are “feeding the fear”. This is an odd conclusion to come to and something worth noting because the truth is mostly the opposite. For the past couple of months the WHO, the CDC, and even Donald Trump have been dismissing Covid 19 as nothing much to worry about. The WHO actually still refuses to call it a pandemic even though the virus meets all of its own criteria.
Until recently the mainstream media was also been pumping out article after article on why Covid 19 is “no more dangerous than the flu”. With the official death rate at 2.3% to 3% (changing by the week), the virus already has higher mortality than the average flu. If we take into account the fact that multiple medical professionals within China have revealed (despite threats of punishment) that the Chinese government is hiding the true (and much higher) death and infection statistics, then the official data goes out the window. We can’t even trust the infection numbers from the CDC in the US, because they were refusing to test most people unless they have recently traveled to China.
In the city of Qom, just 80 miles south of Tehran, there’s a massive cemetery known as the Behesht-e Masoumeh Complex, which lies around six miles north of the city center. Satellite images from as early as February 21 show that excavation teams have been hard at work creating a new section in the graveyard. By the end of February, two large trenches, around 100 yards in length total, had been dug out — they were so large that they were visible from space.
According to video testimony, official statements as well as analysis from experts, this excavation project wasn’t just a routine expansion of a cemetery, but these fresh graves were dug out to accommodate the country’s near-uncontrollable death toll from the coronavirus pandemic.
The pictures of the new graves were taken on March 1 by Maxar Technologies, a private space technology company based in Colorado. A senior imagery analyst from Maxar told Vox that “the trenches were made very quickly” and that these new graves mark a clear departure from the country’s past burial practices when it comes to individual and family grave plots.
Furthermore, the same Maxar analyst said that they have an image of a large pile of lime right next to the freshly-dug plots. Iranian health officials have previously said that they’re using lime to bury those killed by COVID-19.
A video released by BBC Persia purportedly shows the mass graves in Bahesht-e Masoumeh. In the video, the narrator describes the scenes he’s seeing in the cemetery. (Related: Leaked video published by the BBC shows victims of coronavirus in Iran PILING up in stacks of body bags.)
“This is the section for the coronavirus victims,” says the narrator, as the camera pans to a small portion of the trench, showing small, simple markers placed on mounds of dirt and people in blue protective suits standing nearby. “More than 80 [people] have been buried in this section so far, and they say only 34 deaths.” The man is citing Iran’s official death toll on February 28.
Fabian Hinz, a research associate and geospatial analysis expert for Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, reviewed the video as well as another video that was also supposedly shot on sight, said that “unique geographical markers” in the videos match landmarks found in the massive graveyard. This provides evidence to support the hypothesis that the trenches at Bahesht-e Masoumeh were made to supply Qom with more burials for coronavirus victims.
Mistrust and mishandling hamper Iran’s efforts to combat the outbreak
As of press time, Iran reports having 10,075 cases of coronavirus and 429 deaths. They also reported 75 new deaths over the past 24 hours — the most deaths reported by Iran in a single day.
Reports came in last week that dozens of dead Iranians were being kept in black body bags, unburied, on the floor of a morgue in Qom, meaning that morgues all over the city may be struggling to find space for all of the dead. This underscores how one of the holiest cities in Shia Islam is struggling to contend with so many deaths in such a short span of time.
Two medical workers in Qom even told reporters that they worry the coronavirus may put an end to traditional Islamic burial practices, which involves washing the body with soap and water before laying it to rest, due to the fears over catching the infection from dead bodies. Instead, the bodies are being treated with lime so that the coronavirus doesn’t infect the soil. Ali Ramezani, director of Bahesht-e Masoumeh, told a state-run news agency that there was a “pile-up” of bodies at the cemetery.
Fear and confusion as Iranian government officials keel over due to their COVID-19 infections
Iran is currently being criticized for its lack of transparency with regards to the progression of the outbreak in their country. Many experts believe that the real infection rate and death toll are much higher than what the Iranian government reporting.
For example, Mohammad Hossein Ghorbani, a representative for the health ministry of Gilan province, commented that the death toll in the province alone was over 200 — which would represent nearly half of the entire country’s reported deaths.
Over the weekend, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), a Paris-based political organization made up primarily of Iranian expatriates dedicated to the toppling of the country’s current regime, held an online conference that featured addresses by Iranian nurses, medical practitioners and health experts from 19 different locations. Their main topic: the beginning and the spread of the coronavirus outbreak in their home country. Some who spoke at the conference put the real death toll at over 2,000.
While the Iranian regime claims the #Coronavirus death toll for the entire country is 194, the Health Minister’s Plenipotentiary Representative in Gilan Province says the death toll in Gilan province alone is 200. https://twitter.com/Mojahedineng/status/1236683968939876352 …People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK)@Mojahedineng”#Coronavirus death toll in Gilan Province [northern Iran] has reached 200… 800 to 900 are infected,” says Mohammad Hossein Ghorbani, the Health Minister’s Plenipotentiary Representative in Gilan Province.
Official death toll: 194
Remarks prove #Iran’s regime is lying.5211:23 AM – Mar 8, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy55 people are talking about this
A surprising number of current and former government officials in Iran have either been infected by the coronavirus or have succumbed to it. Here are the 14 known current and former politicians who have COVID-19:
- Eshaq Jahangiri, First Vice President
- Masoumeh Ebtekar, Vice President for Women and Family Affairs
- Reza Rahmani, minister of Industry, Mines, and Business
- Ali Asghar Mounesan, acting minister of Cultural Heritage and Tourism
- Iraj Harirchi, deputy minister of Health
- Esmail Najar, head of emergency response organization, the National Disaster Management Organization
- Pirhossein Koolivand, head of emergency medical services
- Mohammad Sadr, member of the Expediency Council, which acts as an advisory council for the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei
- Mostafa Pourmohammadi, former minister of justice and adviser to the current justice minister
- Farideddin Haddad-Adel, a close ally of the Supreme Leader, his sister is Khamenei’s daughter-in-law
- Mojtaba Zolnour, member of parliament (MP) and chair of the Committee for National Security and Foreign Affairs
- Masoumeh Aghapour Alishahi, MP
- Zohreh Elahian, MP
- Mahmoud Sadeghi, MP
Furthermore, the speaker for Iran’s parliament reported that 23 MPs have tested positive for COVID-19, including the four MPs listed above. The countries has also experienced an unprecedented amount of clerics and government officials dying from the virus. Here are 14 confirmed deaths due to COVID-19:
- Mohammad Mirmohammadi, member of the Expediency Council
- Fatemeh Rahbar, newly-elected MP
- Hadi Khosroshahi, former ambassador to Vatican City
- Hossein Sheikholeslam, former ambassador to Syria and former adviser to the current minister for foreign affairs
- Ahmad Toyserkani, an adviser to the current head of the judiciary
- Reza Pourkhanali, the official in the ministry of agriculture in Gilan province
- Mohammadreza Rahchamani, former MP
- Mousa Torabzadeh, a former prosecutor
- Farzad Tazari, former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and former deputy of the IRGC’s political bureau
- Ayatollah Reza Mohammadi Langroudi, a high-ranking cleric
- Ayatollah Mohsen Habibi, high-ranking cleric and member of the Supreme Council of Tehran’s Seminaries
- Ali Hosseini, cleric, and head of the Islamic Development Organization
- Akbar Dehghan, cleric and head of Qom seminary’s interpretation staff
- Reza Modaressi, a cleric from Qom
“We Iranians are about to lose many of our friends and families to this epidemic,” said Sina Dashti, a member of NCRI and an infectologist residing in Sweden.
“Iranians are fighting with two enemies. One is COVID-19 and the second is the Iranian regime. Transparency is key to fighting epidemics. The regime is preventing news of the epidemic from being broadcast.”
Because of government lies, we have to assume that the crisis is more pervasive than we know. And so far the average American is oblivious to it.
The last hope of turning from a Godless Nation back to a Godly Nation rests with the lowly ordinary citizenry. If you are a veteran, of past or current service, you need to remember something you once said. Before you put on that uniform, you raised your hand and swore an oath to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign or domestic.
While we do see a handful of videos of crowds stockpiling supplies at Costco or Walmart, there simply is not enough of them. Frankly, I would prefer to see a nationwide rush to stock up on necessities; at least then we would know that a large number of people will not starve immediately following a supply chain disruption. The more people that have supplies, the less desperation and potential crime there will be.
Only in the past week have the media and certain government representatives suddenly decided to take the pandemic issue seriously. Why wait until there are large community outbreaks in South Korea, Iran, and Italy before instituting some travel guidelines? Why are flights still moving back and forth from these places to the US? Why is Trump’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow telling the country that the pandemic “is contained” and there’s no threat to the economy? Why is the Surgeon General of the US telling people to ‘Stop buying N95 masks’ because they will not work for you; they only work for medical and CDC professionals? This is warped fuzzy logic, and it’s bizarre.
As researchers, doctors and epidemiologists spend more time studying the coronavirus under a microscope, as well as in the 100k+ infections that have yielded reams of useful data, a troubling trend has emerged: researchers have identified a “tipping point” at which the virus goes from dangerous to deadly in extremely susceptible patients.
According to research, while many patients experience nothing more than a mild cold, one in seven patients develops difficulty breathing and other “severe” complications, while 6% become critically ill and require hospitalization to stabilize their condition, risking death if they can’t receive the highest level of care.
Jesus specifically warned us that there would be “pestilences” in the end times, and so if we really are approaching the time of His return this is one of the things that we should be watching for. Of course, we don’t know if COVID-19 is one of the “pestilences” that Jesus was referring to, but in recent days it has greatly distressed me to see so many Christians attempting to downplay the severity of this virus. The number of confirmed cases and the global death toll have both been rising at an exponential rate day after day, and experts are warning that over half of the population of the world could eventually get this virus, but so many voices out there are boldly assuring people that they don’t have anything to be concerned about even though they don’t have any medical credentials at all. Personally, I think that it pays to listen to the experts during a crisis like this, and the experts are telling us that millions could soon die. In fact, as you will see below, a doctor that sat on the White House Homeland Security Council is saying that this is the most “frightening disease” that he has ever encountered. After everything that we have already learned about this virus, anyone that is not taking this pandemic seriously is not being wise.
But is this just another pandemic that will come and go, or is this one of the “pestilences” that we were warned about almost 2000 years ago?
In Luke chapter 21, Jesus explained to His disciples what conditions would be like just prior to His return, and in verse 11 He specifically warned that there would be “pestilences”. The following comes from the King James Version…
11 And great earthquakes shall be in divers places, and famines, and pestilences; and fearful sights and great signs shall there be from heaven.
We have definitely seen a rise in seismic activity in recent years, billions of locusts are devouring crops from eastern Africa all the way to China right now, and Australia just had the worst harvest season that they have ever recorded. Source
So it is interesting to note that the stage is being set for some of the other signs that Jesus mentioned at the very same time that this coronavirus outbreak is starting to spiral out of control.
Patients in these life-threatening situations typically suffer from respiratory and other vital system failures, according to the report by a team of WHO researchers delivered last month. Sometimes, sufferers can even experience skeptic shock.
Since roughly 10-15% of mild-to-moderate patients progress to this next severe state, it’s important for hospitals and doctors to understand which patients are at the highest risk of a worsening infection so they can factor this into their risk assessments and direct resources and attention accordingly. Because of this 10-15 %, 15% to 20% of that group may progress to critically severe infection stage requiring the highest level of attention and care to save a life.
Patients at the highest risk include people at age 60 and older and those with pre-existing conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.
This type of triage should at least be familiar to most doctors since it resembles the infection profile of the seasonal flu, albeit with more patients progressing to the final most critical stage, said Jeffery K. Taubenberger.
When everything goes well, white blood cells attack the virus and lock the infection down within a few days.
Infection generally starts in the nose. Once inside the body, the coronavirus invades the epithelial cells that line and protect the respiratory tract, said Taubenberger, who heads the viral pathogenesis and evolution section of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Maryland. If it’s contained in the upper airway, it usually results in a less severe disease.
But if the virus treks down the windpipe to the peripheral branches of the respiratory tree and lung tissue, it can trigger a more severe phase of the disease. That’s due to the pneumonia-causing damage inflicted directly by the virus plus secondary damage caused by the body’s immune response to the infection.
“Your body is immediately trying to repair the damage in the lung as soon as it’s happening,” Taubenberger said. Various white blood cells that consume pathogens and help heal damaged tissue act as first-responders. “Normally, if this goes well, you can clear up your infection in just a few days.”
But if this doesn’t happen, if the virus persists, and continues to attack the tissue of the nose and throat, at some point, it will become more difficult for the body to fight off a secondary bacterial infection. Such secondary bacterial infections are particularly dangerous because they can damage the stem cells in the lungs, basically making it impossible for a patient’s lungs to heal.
Secondary bacterial infections represent an especially pernicious threat because they can kill critical respiratory tract stem cells that enable tissue to rejuvenate. Without them, “you just can’t physically repair your lungs,” Taubenberger said. Damaged lungs can starve vital organs of oxygen, impairing the kidneys, liver, brain and heart.
“When you get a bad, overwhelming infection, everything starts to fall apart in a cascade,” said David Morens, senior scientific adviser to the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “You pass the tipping point where everything is going downhill and, at some point, you can’t get it back.”
That tipping point probably also occurs earlier in older people, as it does in experiments with older mice, said Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, who has studied coronaviruses for 38 years.
But this isn’t the only way things can go wrong. Even healthy younger adults have succumbed to the virus, including Dr. Li Wenliang, the 34-year-old ophthalmologist who was one of the first to warn about the coronavirus in Wuhan. He died after receiving antibodies, antivirals, antibiotics, oxygen and having his blood pumped through an artificial lung. Scientists have theorized that some people have more of the distinctly shaped protein receptors in their respiratory epithelial cells that the virus targets.
Because of government lies
The number of confirmed cases in the Seattle area has surged to 70, and authorities have transformed an aging EconoLodge into a “quarantine village”…
The EconoLodge in Kent, which is in the heart of the Seattle–Tacoma metropolitan area, will be America’s first Covid-19 quarantine village. As cases and deaths surge in Washington state, officials aren’t constructing modular hospitals in two weeks like China did last month, but rather buying existing commercial properties, such as motels, and stuffing infected people within.
Markovich said another “Covid-19 quarantine village using modular units now underway at 1100 block of 128th St. in North Seattle. There has been no public announcement about this so far.”
As coronavirus overwhelms California health officials, hopes for containment fade
The crackling of a police loudspeaker drew neighbors out of their homes to observe an unusual spectacle on a typically quiet residential street: a California county trying to force a resident to respect quarantine orders.
A police helicopter circled overhead on Thursday as an officer stood outside his patrol car and instructed an elderly woman to go back inside a single-story home owned by a man who died of COVID-19 — a passenger who may have fallen ill on a cruise to Mexico and became the first person in the state to succumb to the virus.
The struggle to contain the coronavirus in just one household speaks to the gargantuan task many of the state’s 58 counties face as they try to contact and assess the 1,590 California residents who disembarked from the Grand Princess cruise ship in San Francisco on Feb. 21.
The Placer County victim was on that ship, creating the prospect that other passengers returned home two weeks ago carrying COVID-19.
State officials obtained a passenger manifest from the cruise company on Wednesday and began immediately informing 44 counties of the names of potentially exposed passengers who reside in their areas. But the statewide outreach began 12 days after the passengers returned to port in San Francisco and dispersed into local communities, plenty of time for them to potentially expose others.
Some officials have acknowledged that the spread of the virus is beyond their control, and there is a widening of the discussion on whether they should shift from a strategy of tracking every potential exposure to asking the public to limit social gatherings.
“We are moving as quickly as possible to limit the spread of disease,” said Dr. Aimee Sisson, the public health officer for Placer County. “To be frank, we would not be surprised to see the second wave of cases connected to these cruise passengers given the amount of time that’s passed since they disembarked.”
The ship, now floating off the coast with a second set of passengers returning from a subsequent trip to Hawaii, is expected to dock Monday in the Port of Oakland, where officials say numerous precautions will be taken to limit further infections. Even so, leading health authorities echoed concerns of many in California that the country has entered a new stage in dealing with the new coronavirus.
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“We’re past the point of containment,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration during the first two years of President Trump’s administration, said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”
“We’ll get through this, but it’s going to be a hard period. We’re looking at two months, probably, of difficulty,” Gottlieb added.
Princess Cruises alleged Saturday that the man who died was already carrying the virus when he boarded the ship. Sisson disagreed and said the county’s investigation found that he probably contracted the disease on the trip.
The state said approximately a dozen passengers on the Grand Princess cruise that traveled to Mexico and returned to San Francisco on Feb. 21 had tested positive for the new coronavirus. As of Saturday, local officials reported four cases in Placer County, two in Contra Costa County, two in Sonoma County and one in Santa Cruz, Ventura, Madera and Alameda counties.
Several passengers interviewed by The Times complained about a lack of communication from county health officials, with several saying last week that they were not contacted by anyone but the cruise company and were unable to get tested for the virus.
Heidi Wolter, a Napa County resident, said she called the county and identified herself as a passenger after she read about a fellow traveler on the ship testing positive in Sonoma County. She said she experienced a five-day headache and suspected her elderly mother may have been in contact with Placer County victims. But she struggled to get through to a nurse, who didn’t offer her any help-seeking a test, she said.
“I am not trying to panic anybody, but I am just trying to let you know [people] that were exposed to this stuff are out there and they are running amok,” Wolter said. “I’m sure there are people from the cruise who don’t even know they shouldn’t be rubbing elbows.”
Karen Relucio, Napa County’s public health officer, said her department wasn’t aware of any major concerns about the cruise ship until the state announced the first death of a passenger and released the manifest to counties. Relucio said someone like Wolter would be considered low risk and would be advised to self-monitor for two weeks when the county began making calls.
“I don’t think local health departments were really informed of the gravity of the situation until Wednesday,” Relucio said.NewsletterGet our Coronavirus Today newsletter
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Other counties admitted that contacting the passengers was a low priority as other potential sources of exposure ballooned in their jurisdictions. The first cases of COVID-19 in California were confirmed in January, and experts believe it’s possible that the virus entered the country undetected shortly after the outbreak began in China.
For some, the Grand Princess case became another sign that efforts needed to stop the spread of the virus are exceeding their capabilities.
“For us, because we have community transmission, lots of people are being exposed every day,” said Solano County Health Officer Bela Matyas.
As of Sunday, Solano County was reporting three confirmed cases of COVID-19, two of which involved residents contracting the disease in the community. One confirmed case exposed an estimated 400 people alone, he said.
“And this wasn’t a particularly gregarious person,” Matyas said. “So, as you can see, a handful of people on the Grand Princess are not going to the front of the line on our priority list.”
Matyas said that the moderately sized Solano County has a unit of 15 people who focus on communicable diseases, but that other departments have been helping and the state Department of Public Health, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Travis Air Force Base have all provided additional staff.
“It’s still a very large burden,” he said. “We have been working beyond our capacity for a while.”
Karen Smith, a communicable disease physician and a former director of the state health department, said the situation reflects the struggle county health departments will encounter to keep up with demand as more people become exposed and test positive.
California’s public health system relies heavily on county officials to respond to epidemics within their communities, announce confirmed cases, track known contacts and declare emergencies. Public health officers lead the charge in each of the state’s counties, which vary dramatically by population, demographics, geographical location, access to healthcare and financial resources.
Smith and others say public health officials are in very serious conversations statewide about when communities should transition from the task of locating potential contacts of a confirmed patient to broadly asking people to stay home and not congregate in groups — a sobering acknowledgment that the virus cannot be stopped.
“When do we get to the point where we don’t have the capacity to keep doing it how we’re doing it?” said Smith, who is working as a consultant in Santa Clara and Mendocino counties. “At that time, we want to slow the virus — it’s unlikely that we’re going to stop the virus — so we can provide adequate healthcare.”
San Francisco issued recommendations for social distancing on Friday, advising residents to stay home as much as possible and avoid congregating in large groups. Santa Clara County, which as of Sunday had 37 confirmed cases, issued similar guidelines. Smith said the shift allows counties to prioritize preventing the spread of the virus in healthcare facilities, nursing homes, and other high-risk settings.
In a briefing Friday, Dr. Barbara Ferrer, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, said that for now, the county has the capacity to do contact tracing, a method of quickly identifying a chain of potential transmission of the disease, for known cases and keep up with demand. But that could change.
“We have the capacity right now. Should there be hundreds of cases, we will just flip to mitigation, and with a concentration on working with institutions where there might be small outbreaks,” she said.
Ferrer said that more extreme measures, such as closing schools, canceling mass gatherings and shutting down public transit, will be considered as the outbreak grows. She said at this point officials feel confident in their ability to find people who are symptomatic and identify and quarantine their contacts.
“If we have a lot more cases … we would move toward more widespread social-distancing measures, and if we have exposures in places like schools, where lots of people got exposure and needed to be quarantined, you would see possible closures,” she said.
Solano County initially required those exposed to COVID-19 to quarantine for 14 days at home. But, according to Matyas, the county in recent days has transitioned to asking those types of residents to stay home only if they develop symptoms.
“It’s way too late to identify everyone once you have community transmission,” he said. “The truth is that we have no clue who has been exposed. At some point, we will decide as a state or a nation to go this direction. We have to say it’s here and we have to protect critical infrastructures like healthcare workers and emergency responders and fragile people.”
Relucio in Napa, where there are no confirmed COVID-19 cases, said a team of roughly 20 employees is working on disease containment, including six nurses who are doing outreach to travelers being monitored or under quarantine, including requiring that residents send in pictures of thermometers displaying their temperature. She said a lab that serves Napa and three other counties just received coronavirus test kits on Friday.
“You eventually stop tracing because there’s no way you can get everybody,” she said. “There’s no way you can do a mandatory quarantine order on hundreds of people. Those orders are only as good as enforcement.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office said the California Department of Public Health is prepared to deploy resources to counties that request help and has already sent staff to Placer, Santa Clara and Solano counties to help identify people who have been exposed to the disease. State public health staff in Richmond and Sacramento are also helping with phone calls, coordination, and guidance on individual cases.
“The state is trying its best,” Relucio said. “I think the information that they get is as good as what they get from the CDC. I think the state is moving as fast as it can, considering the circumstances.”
The state activated its emergency centers at the Department of Public Health and the Office of Emergency Services, and Newsom declared a state of emergency on Thursday to alleviate any regulatory restrictions related to response efforts.
The current budget includes $20 million in emergency funds that the state can use to respond to the crisis, with another $20 million proposed for the fiscal year beginning in July.
The administration is also working with the CDC to secure additional testing kits and received clearance last week to distribute emergency reserves of face masks to healthcare workers.
The governor also announced last week that health plans would be required to cover the costs of testing and other services related to COVID-19, and the state’s lab in Richmond began processing test kits in mid-February.
Despite feeling pressure on the ground, many county health officers view the state’s role as providing guidance to communities.
“I do think it makes sense because [the counties] understand the communities,” said Diana Dooley, a former secretary of the California Health and Human Services Agency and later chief of staff to Gov. Jerry Brown. “Everyone wants a magic wand or a silver bullet in a circumstance like this, but you have to be careful that you’re respecting some process and the people who are on the ground and know what they are doing.”
Times staff writers Anita Chabria, Emily Baumgaertner, and Soumya Karlamangla contributed to this report.
The Coronavirus, Pestilence, the hospital will fail–there’s no other word for it. Docs and nurses won’t show up. It’s not their friends or family or kid’s teacher or pastor at risk. While we wouldn’t have liked it, we would’ve risked our health for our community. These professionals are not going to risk their life for a job. The senior management will try to keep it together for the sake of their careers, but the next tier will quickly bag it. Again, it’s just a job. The corporate supply chain is so fragile, and there are now so few community resources that the hospital as a care system will quickly break down. ..
All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients ‘By About May 8th’ Due To Coronavirus: Analysis
A sobering analysis of how coronavirus is likely to impact the US healthcare system suggests that hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed with patients and that all available beds will be filled by around May 8th if the virus tracks with Italy’s figures and 10% of patients require an ICU.
Of note, the Straits Times reported last week that thousands of people were waiting for hospital beds in South Korea as the disease surges.
Liz Specht, a Ph.D. in biology and the associate director of Science and Technology for the Good Food Institute laid out her concerns in a lengthy Twitter thread on Friday, which you can see here on Twitter, or continue reading below.
I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk about math. 1/n
Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n6,3957:03 PM – Mar 6, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy1,163 people are talking about this
Continued: We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this caseload, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In the absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
What does a caseload of this size mean for the healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.
The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients).
By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.)
If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd.
If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there are no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption.
As the healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now.
Alright, so that’s beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing).
There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Let’s assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, I’m playing conservative at every turn.)
As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day.
One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused.
How quickly could we ramp up the production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in the US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas… again, predominantly from China.
Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We can’t force a trade in our favor.
Now consider how these 2 factors – bed and mask shortages – compound each other’s severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix.
HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, it’s only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above.
We could go on and on about thousands of factors – # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going.
Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works.
Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease.
I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. I’ve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan.
Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. On the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course, some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong.
But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”.
Coronavirus kills the oldest and has no respect for authority, many of the most powerful people in the world are old, and coronavirus does not discriminate based on social status. Deaths are now hitting at high levels (not of death but of status), which can change the political conflicts of our world:
Coronavirus kills the oldest and has no respect for authority
Many of the most powerful people in the world are old, and coronavirus does not discriminate based on social status. Deaths are now hitting at high levels (not of death but of status), which can change the political conflicts of our world:
“America has become China on Steroids” Set Down and SHUT-UP, Our Social Media Platforms (Reprobates) Continue to Hide the Truth From the American People, by Shadow Banning Alt News Sources. The Blood of the People Is on Their Hands…
The truth is that all of the warnings of alleged ‘conspiracy theorists’ have turned out to be correct The word translated “pestilence” is often translated as “plague” or “disaster” …
There is a March to death and social media is leading the charge, they are withholding the truth about the coronavirus, You are Marching lockstep into the death spiral…
This day is here– get ready, the virus WILL spreads throughout the US and Europe, governments will respond the same way China’s government has; martial law and full-blown concentration camp culture. This would lead to civil war in the US because we are armed and many people will shoot anyone trying to put us into quarantine camps. Europe is mostly screwed. The establishment then suggests that paper money be removed from the system because it is a viral spreader. China is already pushing this solution now. Magically, we find ourselves in a cashless society in a matter of a year or two; which is what the globalists have been demanding for years. Everything goes digital, and thus even local economies become completely centralized as private trade dies. “AntiChrist Is On His Temporary Thorne”
StevieRay Hansen,Pestilence ,revelations ,disobedience ,biblical ,foodshortage ,biblicalprophecy, Triblution, CDC, coronavirus
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