HNewsWire-Ukraine, Food Price Increase: "Given the Devastation Already Inflicted by the Plandemic, a New Wave of Unrest Would Be Unsurprising on a Historical Scale"...

The DB strategist then goes all-in and says what everyone is thinking, namely that “this trend of higher food prices leading to social unrest extends far back into history and surrounds many key turning points. The French Revolution of 1789, which overthrew the Ancien Régime, came after a succession of poor harvests that led to major rises in food prices. It was a similar story at the time of Europe’s 1848 revolutions too, which followed the failure of potato crops in the 1840s and the associated severe famine in much of Europe. And the 1917 overthrow of the Tsarist regime in Russia took place in the context of food shortages as well.”

So while it remains to be seen what the consequences of today’s surge in food prices could be, Reid cautions that “given the hardship that’s already occurred thanks to the plandemic, a fresh wave of unrest would be no surprise on a historical basis.”

In a nutshell, this is a concern since food accounts for a significant portion of Asia's CPI baskets, and "this big inflationary drive in the area that accounts for more than half of the world's population should result throughout higher labor costs in the world's industrial base." As Asia's CPI and PPI increase, the effect will be seen internationally in the months ahead."

Today, DB's Jim Reid chose that chart as his "Chart of the Day," reiterating what readers already know: Bloomberg's agriculture spot index has increased by approximately 76 percent year over year, noting that "that is the largest annual increase in nearly a decade, and there are only a few other comparable episodes since the index began in 1991."

As with us, Reid then patiently explains to all the fools – such since those working in the Marriner Eccles building – that the significance of this record spike "extends well beyond your weekly shop, as there is a substantial body of research linking higher food costs to times of social upheaval." Indeed, as the figure indicates, the latest significant rise occurred between the middle of 2010 and early 2011, coinciding with the onset of the Arab Spring, whereby food inflation is widely seen as a major cause.

While this is not new – we discussed it in "Why Albert Edwards Is Panicking About Soaring Food Prices" and "We Are Edging Closer To A Biblical Commodity Price Increase Scenario" – Reid also reminds us that emerging markets are more vulnerable to this trend, as their consumers spend a much higher proportion of their income on food than consumers in the developed world do.

The DB strategist then goes all-in and states what everyone is thinking: "This tendency of rising food costs resulting in societal unrest dates all the way back to ancient times and surrounds several pivotal turning moments." The French Revolution of 1789, which deposed the Ancien Régime, occurred after a series of bad harvests that resulted in significant increases in food costs. It was a similar tale during Europe's 1848 revolutions, which occurred in response to the collapse of potato harvests in the 1840s and the resulting terrible starvation in most of Europe. And the 1917 collapse of the Tsarist dynasty in Russia occurred at a period of food scarcity."

known as the "breadbasket of Europe" because it has traditionally been one of the top ten wheat exporters in the world and would provide the European Union with over $6 billion in agricultural goods in 2020, issued an emergency order Wednesday prohibiting the export of grains and other items.

The embargo covers the export of wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat, sugar, live cattle, and beef, as well as other items deemed critical to the world economy. However, in the midst of war, and with Ukraine's government claiming that many of its citizens are now starving under Russian siege, Ukraine's minister of agriculture and food policy, Roman Leshchenko, told the AP that the drastic measure was taken to avert a "humanitarian crisis in Ukraine," stabilize the market, and "meet the population's critical food product needs."

With food costs already skyrocketing, it is believed that the move would disproportionately affect already impoverished communities from Lebanon to Syria to Africa.

"Russia and Ukraine combined account for about a third of global wheat and barley exports, which have risen in price significantly since the invasion," the AP notes. "The items they supply are used to make bread, noodles, and animal feed in countries around the globe..."

Russia was named the world's greatest wheat exporter by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in 2020, while Ukraine was ranked fifth. China and India produce at a rate comparable to Russia's, yet both nations consume the majority of what they generate domestically.

Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs

Ukraine is also a significant worldwide source of maize and sunflower oil, both of which are used in cooking. Here is further information on the war's probable effect, courtesy of Yahoo Finance:

Concerning Ukraine, Gilbertie said the market has adjusted to the possibility that wheat grown and stored last season would not be delivered. What is now in doubt is what will happen to the wheat that is already growing in the ground. Winter wheat is the predominant crop, he said; it is sown in October, sprouts, matures, and is harvested in the spring.

"What the market is attempting to do is price in the possibility of no wheat harvest season and consequent inability to get wheat out of the fields and/or moved out of Ukraine," he said.

Sunflower and maize crops are planted in the spring, and it is uncertain if farmers will be able to plant at all, given the Ukrainian military conscription, the invasion itself, and gasoline and fertilizer supply constraints.

The same expert, Sal Gilbertie, CEO of Teucrium, said the following on the possible long-term consequences of both the war and international sanctions against Russia: "When wheat stockpiles run low, it is a biblical occurrence. There will be no worldwide food shortage. Regrettably, what we will see internationally is that billions of people will be unable to purchase food."

According to Fox Business, "Russia and Ukraine together account for around 29% of worldwide wheat exports, 19% of global maize supply, and 80% of global sunflower oil exports."