Update: 1/18/21 The Planned Energy Crisis: People Are Going To Die This Winter — Satan Soldiers Are Evil

The Energy Crisis Turns Into Hunger And Then Camps

As the plandemic enters its third year, many small businesses across the United States are besieged on three fronts: deepening supply chain issues; periodic staffing shortages; and fewer customers showing up in some areas, fearing the Omicron spike in COVID-19 cases, "All Planned To Destroy"

(((They))) Are Subhuman Garbage, but Wow, They Are Incredible Manipulators. It’s Almost Deserving of a Slow Clap, Despite How Disgusting It Is

Natural gas is THE critical input into making fertilizer. Urea is essentially ammonia in solid state, the process of which entails reacting ammonia with CO2. And we all now know — thanks to the climate nazis — that CO2 is currently the devil. The problem of course is that with no natural gas there is no urea, and with no urea there is no fertilizer. And with no fertilizer… well, we will eat each other.

Here are the spot urea prices.

Something else that we had noted some time back (in Korea) but which now seems like a larger problem.

Here is an article about an Australian farmer who warns the urea supply crisis could halt normal life within weeks.

Here’s what he says:

‘Not only will we not be able to grow cattle and we will not be able to grow food and we will not be able to grow grain or anything like that, but even if we could, we can’t move it, because we can’t turn a wheel in a truck because we have no Adblue,’ [AdBlue is needed for diesel vehicles — half of all trucks on Australian roads run on diesel

As of February we might not have a truck on the road in Australia, we might not have a train on the tracks.

‘So quite literally the whole country comes to a standstill as of February.’

The farmer then, goes on to say:

‘Go and have a look in your cupboard and go and have a look in your fridge and I guarantee just about every single item there, at some point, urea has been used to produce that item, whether it’s a steak or a salad or a can of baked beans.

Moving to Europe, we have a full blown energy crisis unfolding there, made worse by increasingly more destructive policies by the pointy shoes (let’s produce more solar and wind when it’s proven to be both inadequate and massively costly) and a supply chain crisis.

Take a look at European energy prices.

So here we’re now witnessing the beginnings of what promises to be a storm. Think cold and hungry and you’ve got the right picture.

That electricity comes largely from natural gas, and that natural gas comes from those peaky Russkies.

European Gas Prices Surge Above 100 Euros With Eyes on Russia.

Europe’s benchmark natural gas price rose above 100 euros, or $190 per barrel of oil equivalent, ahead of a series of auctions for pipeline capacity that are seen as a test of Russia’s willingness to ease a supply crunch.

The day-ahead auctions for space on Ukrainian pipelines and capacity at Germany’s Mallnow compressor station will provide a strong signal for how serious Russia is about increasing flows to the west. While the region’s biggest supplier has said it aims to keep refilling European storage sites until the end of December, it hasn’t used short-term auctions to ship more fuel.

So right now we have this situation which is going to make your head spin. Europe is out of gas. They’ve spent the better part of the last decade getting rid of their own domestic energy, replacing it with baubles and toys, which, while scoring big on the woke scorecard, have proven abysmal at producing… well, electricity.

With Europeans now cold and very shortly hungry we are due for a war. Remember that historically, the spiraling food prices have caused civil unrest, revolutions, and wars. On the plus side, it has been known to also cure obesity, so there’s that.

Back to urea and food. You can’t make fertilizer without urea and natural gas. As the price of either of these goes higher (both are), it significantly impacts the price of fertilizer. The price of fertilizer impacts in turn the price of food. This is because fert is the second largest cost component of most agricultural production. The first being… you guessed it, diesel.

We now have a bull market not just in urea, but in natural gas, and to top it off in diesel too.

To expect food prices to remain stable when the ingredients to producing it are all rocketing higher impresses us as comically stupid.

Source: ZeroHedge

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US Heating Oil Supplies Lowest In Decades Ahead Of Winter

Americans are hoping the energy crisis in Asia and Europe won't spread stateside. But industry insiders warn that winter blackouts across the US are possible as low fossil fuel stockpiles may lead to shortages amid heightened demand. 

The latest concern is ultra-low stockpiles of heating oil (distillate fuel oil). In the winter of 2019–2020, about 5.5 million households used heating oil as their primary heating source, and 81% of those households were in the Northeast. 

Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports there are only 31.2 days of the demand for heating oil, the lowest levels since 2000. 

Low stockpiles ahead of cooler weather could be problematic for consumers who may be burdened with high energy costs, or worse, fuel shortages. Below is the two-week forecast for the US Lower 48, underlining cooler weather trends are nearing and how consumers shouldn't wait until the last minute to fill up their tanks. 

Suzanne Danforth, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd., told Bloomberg low stockpiles of heating oil won't be as severe as the gas crisis in Europe where prices went parabolic, though she warned: "It's going to be tight, very tight."

One of the reasons behind low supplies is due in part to the deep freeze in Texas earlier this year that paralyzed refiners and knocked out as much as 5.5 million barrels a day of processing capacity, causing a tremendous drawdown of diesel inventories. 

Inventories continued tightening through the year as a surge in truck drivers was seen to transport goods across the country. There's also been a rise in jet fuel demand as travel rebounded, and let's not forget farmers' increasing diesel demand during harvest. The timing of refiners shutting down for maintenance could amplify the tightness. 

Wood Mackenzie's Danforth said refiners should come back online in November and December and return to "full diesel mode" that would begin to alleviate the market in early 2022.

Compound low heating oil supplies with low propane supplies with low coal supplies, and it appears an energy crunch is possible for the US. Let's hope that's not the case because surging energy prices would mean another loss for "team transitory" and may force the Federal Reserve to taper quicker.  Source: ZeroHedge

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For many months myself and many of the investors I work with have become increasingly concerned at the growing instability and insecurity of energy markets.

The four times spike in Gas prices this year has been a shocking wake-up call, highlighting energy insecurity in Europe and particularly the UK. Gas prices will remain elevated for months to come. The consequences are going to be brutal – and fatal for some.

Energy – whether derived from fossil fuels, nuclear or renewables – is a commodity and the critical thing about commodities is: “You can’t print commodities like you can print money. The rules are not the same,” says my good friend and head of commodities at Shard, Ashley Boolell.

Commodities are volatile and dangerous. Oil has doubled in recent months. But the thing about Gold, Silver, Palladium and copper prices is; no matter how volatile they are, they are simply investment opportunities or traps, and are unlikely to kill us.

Energy is different. It can kill us.

That was conclusively demonstrated earlier this year in Texas. A swift series of winter storms crashed the Texan grid when gas infrastructure failed in the cold, renewables weren’t delivering, and the deregulation of its energy system had delinked Texas from both US power Grids – making it difficult to import energy.

Over 200 people died as a result of power outages.

Fast forward to this winter, and the UK and Europe are in the direct firing line of the coming energy storm. The security of energy supplies has never looked less certain. In the UK, neglected storage means we have the capacity to story 3-4 days of Gas. The recent collapse in sterling has been linked to the panic over Petrol supplies, escalating and cascading supply chain failures impacting industry and growing woes blamed on Brexit.

I would add questions about how the UK’s status as a first world economy with zero energy security will line up.

How has this happened? Why?

Well… that’s a long tale… But, it will be mightily embarrassing for the Boris Johnson Government if the first UK power outages occur during the COP26 Climate Circus in Glasgow in November.

COP26 has driven the Government’s agenda and ambition to be seen as more green, more carbon neutral and more ESG than anyone else. I’ve heard tales of cabinet ministers throwing sweary hissy fits when asked to support policies that don’t immediately square with green policies perceived as vote winners.

As I’ve written many times – ESG is well intentioned, but perhaps the most dangerous force in Economics today.

Investment managers rely on people giving them money to manage. That is why every single fund manager on the planet is fixated on polishing their green credentials, demonstrating how they are funding ESG compliant investments, and eschewing anything even vaguely linked to hydrocarbons.

It is also why Saudi Arabia is polishing its credentials by improbably launching and successfully selling a Green Bond.

The result is a chronic failure of common sense across the investment industry.

Fund managers claim to be investing in our futures. If that is true – how do they expect the world can transition seamlessly from dirty hydrocarbons to clean renewables overnight? It takes 20 years to get planning and build a nuclear power station – while wind is proving fickle, unreliable, far less efficient and difficult to maintain.

The brutal reality is we can’t decarbonise the global economy overnight. Over 30 years.. perhaps! Through the transition period we will still need power and energy derived from the old dirty hydrocarbons. Powering up EVs, making the fuel for hydrogen planes and trains, will all require hydrocarbon derived energy. That’s fact.

Instead, ESG investment compliance means all the gas in our offshore waters that could have powered the UK to becoming a truly carbon-nuetral, energy secure state in 20-30 years time is untapped and un-investible. For now – the skills to tap it are already disappearing.

ESG has evolved into a religion, a high church of environmental orthodoxy. Its heretical to suggest ESG can’t work unless we evolve towards a cleaner energy ecosystem by continuing to burn hydrocarbons. A crisis this way comes: for all the posts on Linked-In boasting about green investments, or the industry awards for Green Bond of the year, or the multitude of certificates one can earn on ESG investments – it will all count for nothing this winter.

This Winter – People Are Going To Die Of Cold.

As the price of energy goes higher, the costs will fall disproportionately upon the poorest in Society. Income inequalities will be dramatically exposed as the most vulnerable in society face a stark choice: Heat or Eat.

That has all kind of social consequences. Can you imagine how the Gillet Jaunes in France will react ahead of the French elections in April? And what about the prospect for riots as fuel prices hit the poorest communities and ethnic groups in the UK?

This winter the UK is likely to be on its knees begging energy from wherever it’s available. Europe will be in as much trouble. The Middle East will be charging whatever they can get away with, and the capacity to deliver is limited. The much vaunted energy-independence of the US will be tested – it unlikely they will be minded to export. That will leave government with a stark choice – let people freeze or pay the cost, probably triggering a balance of payments crisis and a further confidence crash in sterling.

The likely source of Gas will be Russia. And Vladimir Putin can’t wait.

The coming Energy Crisis will be his grand opportunity. Remember the famous photo of him with Angela Merkel and his dog prowling in front of her? Putin knew she has a terror of dogs so he deliberately intimidated her. He won’t deal with Europe. He will invite each European leader to plead their case individually, menacingly asking each leader why he should open the Gas Taps to their nation specifically.

Covid 19 was the first big test for Europe. Its’ vaccine program failures could have been disastrously fractious for the EU. When faced with a European Energy Crisis and Russia holding the cards, what’s to stop countries doing deals? Who will crack first? Poland? Germany? And what will Putin expect in return? Legitimacy?  A free-hand to deal with domestic dissent? Sanction ending? A free hand in Ukraine or even the Baltics? It rather depends on what price he thinks he can force Europe to pay.

And what will Putin ask of Boris? That London reopens its door and markets to the kleptocracy he leads? Or something more…?

Make no mistake, this winter is going to be shocking. Be aware.

Source: zerohedge HNewsWire HNewsWire Header image: The Guardian

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