Cases Soaring, Officially Reported Information Is Increasingly Useless…
Why hasn’t the public been provided with a credible projection or model?
This is a lesson in how deficient the data and analyses are that health officials have provided to the public on COVID-19.
We tried to answer the most basic questions about where the pandemic is heading in Illinois in light of the torrent of new COVID cases: With case numbers exploding, won’t Illinois very quickly be overwhelmed with infections and herd immunity? How many deaths will result? Can hospitals handle the surge?
We looked for a model or projection that might answer at least some of those questions but found none, so we used official numbers from the State of Illinois and the Center for Disease Control to try to answer for ourselves.
Here is what published, official numbers imply: Seventy percent of Illinoisans – nearly 8.9 million people – will be infected with COVID by early December. Herd immunity, whether we like it or not, will therefore be reality by then.
Those conclusions are faulty and at odds with policy and prevailing understanding, even though they are based on official numbers. But how far off are they? We can’t say. It’s an illustration of why health officials must give us better numbers and provide models and projections consistent with those numbers.
Official numbers indeed seem to say, on the surface, that 70% percent of Illinoisans are headed for infection by early December. Here is the short version of the math behind the projection, which we did in more detail than shown here:
- New “cases” – reported, actual infections – are now growing at a remarkable rate, as you can see from this chart:
- At the current growth rate, Illinois would reach 890,000 confirmed cases around December 13.
- But – and this is key – every confirmed case means there are 10 actual cases, which is a widely published number from the CDC. In fact, the the CDC recently increased that number to 11, but we used 10 to be conservative.
- So, the cumulative number of Illinoisans infected will reach 8.9 million around December 13.
- That 8.9 million is about 70% of Illinois’ population, which is widely seen as the point at which herd immunity is achieved. Many experts, however, put that percentage lower, some as low as 40%, which would mean Illinois would be well past herd immunity by early December.
“Herd immunity” is the term given to the level of infections at which the virus begins to recede because so much of the population has been infected and is therefore immune. Put simply, it’s the point at which the virus has no place to go so it begins to disappear. It’s why most viruses ultimately disappear.
So, if official numbers were correct and adequate, our projection would mean that the pandemic would start resolving itself in less than two months, even without a vaccine.
But that’s not right, for a number of reasons. To get it right, we would need more information. We would also need experts doing a more complex model that we probably couldn’t do – experts who aren’t politicized. And to get that, we would need the media to be pushing for it and asking the right questions.
Here are just a few reasons why the projection above is faulty.
- First, that ratio of unreported cases to reported cases, which the CDC now says is 11, is not fixed. It will decline as more people get infected. In other words, we will hit a curve as higher immunity levels kick in, so our straight-line projection isn’t realistic. But we can find no tool or formula that adjusts that number over time. Building it into a projection would be better left to an expert.
- Second, scientists don’t fully agree about immunity for those who were previously infected. Most seem to agree that a high degree of immunity lasts for at least four months after recovery, but that’s not certain.
- Third, the effects from a new vaccine should be reflected in any model or projection. Those effects should begin kicking in by January. Experts have long anticipated the new vaccine announcement and there should already be projections that reflect its effects, but where are they?
We used “official” numbers even though we are well aware of other underlying questions about those numbers. Those questions include whether false positive numbers are being reported as cases, and whether tests are overly sensitive thereby recording harmless virus remnants as infections. Those issues, too, could change the projection.
What about the other key questions? With no good way to project future infection numbers, and with no good projection from health authorities, those other questions are unanswerable as well.
Specifically, how many will die because of the new surge? That’s what makes herd immunity controversial – the number of deaths required to get there. We can’t answer without a good projection on infections, and nobody has provided one. The number of deaths, however, almost certainly will be lower than you would think based on past fatality rates. That’s because infections are increasingly concentrated in younger people, who face virtually no fatality risk, and because treatment has improved significantly.
And what about hospital overload? Again, we can’t speculate without a good projection of infections. Anecdotally, we are also hearing from hospital personnel that hospital stays for COVID-19 are now shorter than before. Perhaps that, too, should be reflected in a meaningful projection.
Why hasn’t the public been provided with a credible projection or model?
In the case of Illinois, maybe it would be embarrassed to try. The last time Illinois officials talked about new models they turned out to be wrong before they were even released. And the IHME model from the University of Washington, which was earlier the most cited in the nation and among those Illinois used used, turned out to be consistently and badly wrong.
The bottom line is that if you want understand where the virus is heading in light of the new surge you will be frustrated. Neither state or federal officials have told you much or given you the numbers to figure it out for yourself.
And the media aren’t asking.
Special thanks to a particularly smart Wirepoints reader who has been tracking in detail all the numbers relevant to the projection discussed above. He sent his calculations, which we confirmed. He shares our frustration about lack of the critical information and hopes that both public health officials and the scientific community will start providing more meaningful numbers and analyses.
Satan Soldiers Working The Plandemic For The New World Order Pukes Will Continue to
Punish the People Until They Have What The Want, ‘Complete Submission’ — as Millions Risk Losing Power Over Unpaid Utilities as Most States’ Pandemic Grace Period Expires…
The Plandemic Has Been Designed to Make Society Suffer, They Know If They Crush Society They Will Be Able to Implement the New World Order, the Alternative Would Be FEMA Food Lines, Satan Soldiers Billionaire Financier George Soros in Full Stride…
Millions of Americans are facing a dire situation of being without power or water as their utility bills pile up, and as state and local protections which allowed for deferred payments amid the pandemic come to an end.
After a summer of rising unemployment numbers brought on by the crisis, though seeing a promising potential softening of the trend in September, The Washington Post recently detailed some instances of people going as much as two months in the dark after falling behind on utility payments last spring.
“The worst economic crisis in more than a generation has thrust potentially millions of Americans across the country into a similar, sudden peril: Cash-strapped, and in some cases still unemployed, they have fallen far behind on their electricity, water and gas bills, staring down the prospect of potential utility shut-offs and fast-growing debts they may never be able to repay,” the Post summarized of new National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association (NEADA) analysis.AFP via Getty Images
Soon following the start of the pandemic in the US and resulting state lockdowns, most states moved to ensure residents that they would prevent utility shut-offs for an extended grace period. But still the debts have mounted, and at this point, the NEADA finds, only 21 states along with the District of Columbia still have disconnection bans in place.
That means the majority of states are shutting off utilities over unpaid bills. And further, “Millions more in nine other states are set to lose their protections starting Thursday and throughout the fall, the group found,” WaPo reports.
The study found that 179 million Americans are potentially at risk of shut-offs, though with the big and unlikely assumption that the vast amount of households would fail to pay their bills altogether. But still even a small percentage of this number means many hundreds of thousands of households, or even millions, face being in the dark.
Consider a single state, Indiana:
In some cases, the delinquencies appear to be severe. In Indiana, for example, more than 112,000 households are behind 120 days or more on their power bills, a Washington Post analysis of the largest local energy companies’ records found. The debt, totaling millions of dollars, is four times greater than the arrears accrued during the same period in 2019, the data shows.
The report further underscored that the nation’s electric and gas debts alone are likely to exceed a whopping $24.3 billion by year’s end.
Likely adding to the utilities debt crisis for many families is that fact that lockdowns were in place throughout much of the early summer, keeping families indoors more than they would have been, and at a moment of high temperatures.
The World Is In Big Trouble, for Those That Believe We Will Go Back to Some Sense of Normal Life Here on Earth, You Will Be Sadly Disappointed, Seven Years of Hell on Earth Which Began January 1, 2020https://hnewswire.com/evictions-could-make-28-million-americans-homeless-this-summer-alone-fema-has-a-plan-hell-on-earth/embed/#?secret=l3rKV6pS40https://hnewswire.com/fema-is-preparing-for-coronavirus-emergency-declaration-has-the-cdc/embed/#?secret=oZpjgkrjjj
Hell On Earth…
Evictions Could Make 28 Million Americans Homeless This Summer Alone, FEMA Is Waiting
Proverbs 14:31 “Whoever oppresses a poor man insults his Maker, but he who is generous to the needy honors him”…
Remember the account of the rich man and Lazarus? The rich man must have walked past Lazarus day after day and saw this poor beggar man but did nothing to help him. After death it seems the positions of both are switched. The poor man is now in Paradise or in the “bosom of Abraham” but the rich man is in torment and in thirst amidst the flames of fire. He remembers his life and now wants to warn his family but it is far too late because he oppressed the poor so long that he insulted his Maker and after his death, came his judgment (Heb 9:27).
Even though we know our elected officials with eyes wide open started this Plandemic, they KNEW it would increase homelessness, hunger, and a multitude of people’s lives. We are still commanded to help those in need, those that purposely harmed innocent people will be judged accordingly.
And with public health experts warning people to continue to “Stay at Home,” the slogan is taking on a perverse new meaning as humanitarian disaster looms for some 28 million people in the U.S. who are facing eviction and homelessness in the immediate future.
About 19 percent of those surveyed were unable to make any housing payment in the first week of the month, while 13 percent paid a portion of their rent or mortgage.
The numbers represent the grim fact that for four months now, a “historically high” amount of U.S. households have been unable to pay their housing bill, either on time or in full. It also represents an increase from 30 percent in June and 31 percent in June.
According to Apartment List, those most likely to miss their payments were younger, low-income, or renters. Other experts warn that Black and Latino’s families face the highest risk of eviction. They also may be entering the start of a rapid and vicious cycle, the report suggests.
“Delayed payments in one month are a strong predictor for missed payments in the next,” Apartment List says. Indeed, 83 percent of households who paid the entirety of their May housing costs in a timely way did the same in June, but only 30 percent of families who were late in May did so in June.
As the economic crisis continues to spiral unabated, tens of millions of Americans continue to survive on unemployment while their economic stimulus checks have long been gone.
“The economic fallout from the pandemic does not appear on track for the quick V-shaped recovery that many had originally hoped for,” Apartment List notes.
And with unemployment benefits expiring while local governments are lifting eviction bans and moratoriums that deferred rent payments, experts and advocates are warning that we could see a tsunami of mass evictions across the country that exceeds anything ever seen.
Emily Benfer is the chair of the American Bar Association’s Task Force Committee on Eviction and co-creator of the COVID-19 Housing Policy Scorecard with the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. In an interview with CNBC, Benfer explained that the current public health crisis would soon see tens of millions of people losing their homes in the coming weeks.
“We have never seen this extent of eviction in such a truncated amount of time in our history,” she said. “We can expect this to increase dramatically in the coming weeks and months, especially as the limited support and intervention measures that are in place start to expire.”
“About 10 million people, for years, were displaced from their homes following the foreclosure crisis in 2008,” she added.
“We’re looking at 20 million to 28 million people at this moment, between now and September, facing eviction.”
Legal aid groups and housing advocates expect an avalanche of cases as eviction moratoriums, and rent deferral moratoriums have ended in quick succession. And across the country, there has been a 200 percent jump in calls to 211 call centers that refer people to social service providers, reports Yahoo! finance.
And as the moratoriums are lifted, county courts face hundreds, if not thousands of eviction cases flooding in Memphis. Local county courts saw a backlog of 9,000 eviction cases when hearings resumed last month.
“In many ways, the wave has already begun. We need to stop it from becoming a tsunami, and we’re running out of time,” said Diane Yentel, president of the National Low-Income Housing Coalition. “We see now a frankly horrifying confluence of increasing evictions in states where new coronavirus cases are surging.”
According to the COVID-19 Eviction Defense Project (CEDP), one in five of the 110 million Americans who rent their homes – over 20 million people – are at risk of eviction by the end of September. And these aren’t merely low-income families, but people who fell on rough times recently due to the shock of the pandemic, explains CEDP Co-Founder Zach Neumann – and the number is expected to dramatically jump when unemployment benefits run out at the end of the month.
“You have a lot of folks who had high incomes, in a lot of cases high five-figure or low six-figure [salaries],” Neumann explained.
“They didn’t have a lot of savings, lost their jobs or were furloughed, and there was no severance attached to that, but had rents that were in line with the salaries they were earning. The client pool economically looks a lot different than it has in the past.”
The threat of homelessness has coincided with a dramatic spike in coronavirus infections across the U.S. South and the West, hitting struggling tenants disproportionately. And with states like Texas pausing reopening plans, evictions hearings are still proceeding – but on Zoom. As a result, tenants who lack access to technology are often robbed of their ability to flex their legal rights.
Housing advocates are urgently calling for federal protections in the form of a uniform eviction moratorium and federal aid through the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions or HEROES Act and the Emergency Housing Protections and Relief Act of 2020. However, the Republican-controlled Senate is expected to block both measures.
Renters across the country are also forming tenant’s unions and demanding that rent be deferred indefinitely. Some tenants, such as the Acacia Apartments residents in Denver, Colorado, are already waging a rent strike – potentially showing how people across the country who are struggling to keep a roof over their heads plan to keep fighting even in the face of their landlords’ eviction threats.
Watchmen does not confuse truth with consensus The Watchmen does not confuse God’s word with the word of those in power…
The role of a watchman: Gives insight into the world at the end of this age. They see the dark gathering clouds on the world’s horizon that spell the end of Satan’s reign as the god of this world and author of all its evil. This leads them to mount the “walls” of society and shout a warning to any who will hear. To say: “God is sovereign. He will bring a time of judgment on the world to prove that He alone is God. All other gods erected by people to hide His truth will be destroyed.”
A national affliction
Today America and Great Britain stand at a crossroads. For more than 200 years they have dominated the world in virtually every arena. As Great Britain retreated from its empire after World War II, America was there to take its place and continue the legacy set by the English through their peak years.
But America’s dominant power is under siege from many sectors. Its will to stay the course in Iraq is being tested, its military machine strained under the pressure of the extended fighting. Though it is the primary engine for the world’s economy, a weakened dollar and a trade balance deficit are both troubling indicators of a major crisis ahead.
God warns us through the message of the prophets that sins will demand a day of reckoning. People cannot continue worshipping the false gods of materialism and self, blindly stumbling along in their own righteousness, and expect their affluent standard of living to continue.
God’s Word confirms there will be an accounting; the lesson of history is that any people who corrupt their moral core will eventually fade from power. God calls on America and Great Britain to wake up, acknowledge their sins, and repent before national calamity descends on them.
“Do this and live”
Amos the prophet walked into the city of Samaria, capital of the northern kingdom of Israel, and boldly told the king and city leaders to repent or face captivity at the hands of the Assyrians. He pointed to neighboring states that had fallen and said, “You are no better than they were.”
He rebuked those who did not want to hear a “message of doom.” To those who stocked their homes with the finest luxury goods and gourmet foods, trusting that affluence was a sign of God’s blessing, he said, “Don’t trust in materialism.” The citizenry, at all levels, looked only to their comfort and ease and did not grieve “for the affliction of Joseph” (Amos 6:6).
Those who “grieve” and “sigh and cry” over societal sins are called to a unique role. They are part of God’s elect, called to the duty of proclaiming the announcement of the Kingdom of God. That message includes the good news of Jesus Christ’s return to restore all things (see Acts 3:19-21). The message also contains a warning to repent and receive God’s blessing or ignore the warning and face the judgment of God. It is a double-edged message—plain-spoken, yet full of hope.
Fulfilling this role requires courage, perseverance, and a love for the people addressed. One of the best examples of this was the prophet, Jeremiah. Jeremiah spent more than 40 years in the role of a watchman to the nation of Judah, urging people to heed his warnings and return to the ways of God.
Notice this passage: “Stand in the ways and see, and ask for the old paths, where the good way is, and walk-in it; then you will find rest for your souls. But they said, ‘We will not walk in it’ ” (Jeremiah 6:16).
God’s main message throughout the Bible is to return to His paths, His teachings, as the solution for the suffering and pain of human life. “Do this and live,” He says.
Jeremiah and others like him have stood in the role of a watchman. “Also, I set watchmen over you, saying, ‘Listen to the sound of the trumpet!’ But they said, ‘We will not listen.’ Therefore hear, you nations … Behold, I will certainly bring calamity on this people —the fruit of their thoughts, because they have not heeded My words nor My law, but rejected it” (Jeremiah 6:17-19).
Examining the concept of watching in the New Testament helps to complete the picture of this role. The Greek word Gregorio, translated as “watch,” means to keep awake, to watch, and to take heed. Through neglect or laziness, we could let down and be overcome with sin, or a sudden calamity could overwhelm us spiritually.
Notice in Mark 13:32-37, in Jesus’ prophecy of the end time, that He urges His disciples three times to “watch” during the times leading to His second coming. The emphasis is on a personal watch through prayer to know the times.
By prayer and righteous living, we stay tuned to Jesus Christ. Through this way of life one can discern the moral climate of the times and avoid being tossed around with every shifting ideology of modern culture. Walking in God’s laws and instruction insulates us from the course of the world and its deceptions.
Revelation 16 describes a massive end-time deception perpetrated by Satan and demons that work through the human instruments called “the Beast” and “the False Prophet” (Revelation 16:13). Their influence gathers the leaders of the earth “to the battle of that great day of God Almighty . . . to the place called in Hebrew, Armageddon” (Revelation 16:14-16).
In our fascination over these otherworldly figures, we can easily skip over Christ’s charge: “Behold, I am coming as a thief”—suddenly and unexpectedly. “Blessed is he who watches, and keeps his garments, lest he walks naked and they see his shame” (Revelation 16:15, emphasis added throughout).
Jesus pronounces a blessing for those who, during mankind’s darkest moment, watch. That is, they are living prudently and properly. The natural by-product of this close relationship with God is being alert to religious deception. Those who frame their life around the coming Kingdom of God will watch and keep themselves from the wiles of the devil.
This is the end result of fulfilling the role of a watchman within the Body of Christ—to be found standing in the faith, blessed of God at the dawn of His Kingdom on this earth.
Our world is moving toward this time of the global cataclysm. Revelation 16 describes a future moment when people will be caught up in events engineered through the Beast and False Prophet. The former is a political leader of compelling personality and ability; and the other, a religious leader unlike any in modern times.Together they will convince armies to move toward Jerusalem to fight Jesus Christ at His coming.
Warning and hope
This is a time for the watchmen to mount the walls and sound a clear, unmistakable warning message of the dangers facing not just the English-speaking peoples but also the whole world. It is time to make known the hope of the coming Kingdom of God.
Isaiah’s message stands bright and clear today: “How beautiful upon the mountains are the feet of him who brings good news, who proclaims peace, who brings glad tidings of good things, who proclaims salvation, who says to Zion, ‘Your God reigns!’ Your watchmen shall lift up their voices, with their voices they shall sing together; for they shall see eye to eye when the Lord brings back Zion” (Isaiah 52:7).
Come, take your place on the walls, work for the Kingdom and pray for its speedy arrival!
These special servants understand the dangers of the present world. They see the dark clouds gathering on the world’s horizon and are moved to proclaim a warning message to all who will hear.
The number of Orphans aging out of Child Protective Custody has grown at an alarming rate. The 127 Faith Foundation receives many requests each week to house them at our ranch. Our prayer is that the good people of our country will step up to the challenge and offer financial support for "the least among us." We need your help! StevieRay Hansen, Founder, The 127 Faith Foundation