Even Johns Hopkins University agreed that deaths are almost certainly being undercounted: “We definitely think there are deaths that we have not accounted for,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. JHU has been tracking the virus from the beginning, maintaining an online database that has become one of the most trusted and widely-cited sources of data on deaths and cases by the press around the world…
- NY reports first drop in daily deaths since the outbreak began
- FT shows how the US has become COVID-19s “epicenter”
- NY hospitalizations drop
- Italy follows New York with another promising drop in deaths
- France also reports a drop in deaths
- UK reports biggest jump in new cases as Queen speech about to air
- 2 Walmart workers die in a store near Chicago
- Louisiana warns it will run out of ventilators in five days
- India bans export of Trump’s ‘miracle’ coronavirus drug
- NYT exposes massive undercounting of COVID-19 deaths in the US
- Tokyo reports yet another jump in new COVID-19 cases
- Queen Elizabeth plans special televised address to Britain, only the 4th during her reign
- Australia launches criminal probe into Carnival Cruises
- COVID-19 deaths in Japan pass 100
* * *
Update (1445ET): Two reporters from the New York Times purport to have found evidence that health officials, often at the local or county level, are dramatically undercounting coronavirus deaths in the US. Citing information and documents provided by “doctors, hospital officials, public health experts, and medical examiners,” among others, the reporters claim that potentially thousands of deaths have gone uncounted, meaning the total is probably closer to 20k – or beyond – than the roughly 10k (9,180, per JHU) reported so far.
Unfortunately, since the patients have died, there will be few – if any – opportunities for these discrepancies to be rectified, if coronavirus isn’t listed as a cause of death, something that requires a positive test.
Given the shortage of tests around the US, living patients have typically been prioritized over the deceased, even as counting posthumous deaths is important in helping officials get the accurate data they need to fight the virus.
A lot of the most compelling anecdotes in the report came from coroners, and from families like this one, per the NYT:
As the coronavirus outbreak began sweeping across the country last month, Julio Ramirez, a 43-year-old salesman in San Gabriel, Calif., came home from a business trip and began feeling unwell, suffering from a fever, cough and body aches. By the next day, he had lost his sense of taste and smell.
His wife, Julie Murillo, took him to an urgent care clinic several days later, where he was so weak he had to be pushed in a wheelchair. Doctors prescribed antibiotics, a cough syrup and gave him a chest X-ray, but they did not test for the coronavirus, she said. Just over a week after he returned from his trip and not long after President Trump declared a national emergency over the outbreak, Ms. Murillo found him dead in his bed.
“I kept trying to get him tested from the beginning,” Ms. Murillo said in an interview. “They told me no.”
Frustrated, Ms. Murillo enlisted friends to call the C.D.C. on her behalf, asking for her husband to be tested for the coronavirus post-mortem. Then she hired a private company to conduct an autopsy; the owner pleaded for a coronavirus test from local and federal authorities.
On Saturday afternoon, Ms. Murillo received a call from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, she said. The health department had gone to the funeral home where her husband’s body was resting and taken a sample for a coronavirus test. He tested positive.
A spokesman for the health department did not respond to questions about Mr. Ramirez, and it was not clear whether any systematic post-mortem testing was being conducted beyond his case.
Even Johns Hopkins University agreed that deaths are almost certainly being undercounted: “We definitely think there are deaths that we have not accounted for,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. JHU has been tracking the virus from the beginning, maintaining an online database that has become one of the most trusted and widely-cited sources of data on deaths and cases by the press around the world.
* * *
Update (1400ET): Some more encouraging news out of Europe: Like Italy before it, France reported an encouraging drop in deaths, with 357, lower than the count from the last two days. It raised the death toll to 8,078, but still qualified as a “significant” drop, according to the French Ministry of Health. France also reported 1,873 new cases of COVID-19, raising its total to 68,605 cases.
As the Queen prepared to deliver a historic speech, the UK reported a 5,903 new cases of the virus, a record increase for one day, bringing its total to 47,806, while another 621 deaths brought its death toll to 4,934. Daily testing rose to record 12,334.
In Ireland, 21 more people infected with the coronavirus have died, bringing the total number of deaths in Ireland to 158. There have been 390 new cases reported Sunday, bringing its total to 4,994.
In a story that once again exposes the dangerous risks being taken by “essential” workers, many of whom are low-paid hourly employees who work retail, CNN reported Sunday that two workers at a Chicago-area Walmart store have died from the novel coronavirus, the company confirmed Sunday, the first deaths among Wal-Mart workers since the pandemic began. It once again highlights these risks, which have been exacerbated by the shortages in PPE that have made these products virtually inaccessible for store workers.
“We are heartbroken to learn of the passing of two associates at our Evergreen Park store, and we are mourning along with their families,” an emailed statement from the company reads. Walmart in its statement did not provide the workers’ names, ages or how long they had been with the company. It is also unclear exactly when the two workers passed away.
The two associates had not been in the Evergreen Park store “for more than a week,” the company said, but of course, there’s no way to guarantee that others weren’t exposed.
Finally, in Louisiana, Gov. John Bel Edwards Louisiana’s governor says the state will probably run out of ventilators in 5 days.
* * *
Update (1245ET): Another promising headline has just hit the tape: Italy just reported the lowest number of daily deaths in more than 2 weeks: 525 new deaths were reported over the past 24 hours, along with 4,316 new cases. That brings Italy’s death toll to 15,887, still the largest in Europe.
Italy remains on a strict lockdown, with the hard-hit Lombardy region over the weekend requiring citizens leaving their homes to shield their mouths and noses with masks or other coverings and insisting residents remain inside for all but essential activities, after seeing an increase in people venturing outside in defiance of the quarantine. Tuscany soon followed suit with similar rules.
Police have fined over 175,000 people since March 11 for violations of the lockdown, according to the Interior Ministry. As the country prepares for the fifth week of lockdown measures, opposition leader Matteo Salvini of the right-wing League called on the government of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to open churches for the coming Easter holiday. Measures to keep the country shut down have been extended through at least April 13, and Conte is expected to announce revised rules and timelines by the end of next week, according to reports in the Italian press.
Most importantly, this news will likely be met with cries of relief from struggling Italians, weary of their more than month-long struggle with the virus, who are hoping this is evidence that they’re finally riding down the ‘backside’ of the curve.
Italy has hopefully reached the top of the mountain and now on the way back down. https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1246572787260522496 …The Spectator Index@spectatorindexITALY: Number of patients in intensive care has dropped for the first time since the crisis began317:31 AM – Apr 5, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacySee Owen Callan’s other Tweets
* * *
Before we delve into our daily breakdown of some of the biggest coronavirus-related news from around the world, we’d like to highlight yet another grim milestone in COVID-19’s “conquest” (are we still allowed to use war metaphors or has that been declared un-PC?) of the US. While the outbreaks in Mexico and Canada have only produced about 16k cases between them, the total number of cases confirmed in the US has ballooned past 300k in the US (to 312,249 as of 11amET Sunday morning).
Now, here’s the FT, which detailed the shift in momentum from Asia, to Europe, to the US. It’s a little more complicated than look at only the overall totals and the current daily figures.
In a little over one month the daily number of Covid-19 cases globally has grown exponentially from 2,359 on March 1 to 101,503 on Saturday. At the beginning of March, Asia accounted for more than half of the total cases reported each day. This quickly shifted as outbreaks began in continental Europe, with Italy, Spain, Germany and France all reporting cases in the thousands. By mid-March, Europe was responsible for four in every five new confirmed cases each day. While Europe is still responsible for nearly 40 per cent of daily cases, the US has become the new centre of the Covid-19 pandemic. The country accounts for nearly one-third of all daily cases, with New York state particularly affected.
Here’s most of that, broken down into a chart:
All that said, with the US gearing up for what President Trump and NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo expect to be the week where the outbreak peaks (in New York, at least), the Empire State has at least started off on the right foot.
New York reported 8,327 new cases of coronavirus and 594 new deaths on Sunday (compared with 630 a day ago), marking the state’s first drop in daily deaths since the outbreak began. In total, 122,031 cases have been confirmed in the state (roughly equivalent to the national totals of both Italy and Spain )and 4,159 deaths. While we’re certainly no epidemiologists, we suspect others might point to this as a small, but hopefully promising, hint that the ‘peak’ is near, or here.
And as we noted last night, hospitalizations in the state have shown another encouraging decline, even as many ICUs in NYC remain very close to, or at, capacity.
Cuomo is beginning his daily press briefing below:
Holding a briefing with updates on #Coronavirus. WATCH LIVE: https://www.pscp.tv/w/cViaFTIyNjcxMDN8MXlwS2RRbFBtRXlHVz0MB2mFEcMwiPsBhlLIaT_qfOHrLajf6po8ud-PQQXK …Andrew Cuomo @NYGovCuomoHolding a briefing with updates on #Coronavirus. WATCH LIVE:pscp.tv2,36310:07 AM – Apr 5, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy1,064 people are talking about this
The governor kicked off Sunday’s presser by thanking New York’s health-care workers, before adding that recent trends suggest that the state might have already arrived at its hoped-for plateau.
“You could argue that you are seeing a plateauing,” he told reporters in Albany. “Next week they will tell you whether we are on a plateau or is it just a blip,” he said, referring to statisticians. He noted that deaths had leveled off for three days following the dramatic increases seen for most of last week, which saw the state reporting close to 1k deaths a day for a few days there.
New hospitalizations dropped to 574 on Sunday from 1,095, Cuomo said, adding that 74% of those hospitalized have been discharged.
Being a pandemic with almost no precedent in modern times (other than the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918), traditions of culture and governance are being disrupted left and right (hell, we just canceled the Olympics). In keeping with that trend, Queen Elizabeth will deliver a special televised address to Britain; it will be only the fourth time she has done so during her nearly 70-year reign. Excerpts from the address have already been released, and in them, the Queen acknowledges the suffering of hundreds of thousands of families around the country, while seeking to “lift their spirits” and “offer hope,” according to ABC News.
The 93-year-old monarch is expected to acknowledge the suffering that many families have experienced because of the COVID-19 crisis, which has infected more than 42,000 people in the U.K. and killed at least 4,313 of them. She will seek to lift spirits and offer hope to the country in its hour of need.
“I am speaking to you at what I know is an increasingly challenging time,’’ she said, according to excerpts released ahead of remarks that were being broadcast Sunday night. “A time of disruption in the life of our country; a disruption that has brought grief to some, financial difficulties to many and enormous changes to the daily lives of us all.”
Elsewhere, Tokyo reported yet another record jump in daily cases, with 143 new coronavirus infections announced on Sunday, metropolitan government officials said. Meanwhile, the number of COVID-19-related deaths finally surpassed 100 in Japan, Nikkei reports. In India, the government of Narendra Modi has banned the export of hydroxychloroquine, a drug widely touted by Trump for treating COVID-19. In Australia, prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Carnival Cruises as hundreds were sickened, dozens died on their ships.
Ten days ago, shortly after China first started reporting the cases and deaths associated with the coronavirus epidemic, a UK researcher predicted that over 250,000 Chinese would be infected with the virus by February 4. And while according to official Chinese data, the number of infections has indeed soared in the past two weeks, at just under 25,000 (and roughly 500 deaths), it is a far cry from this dismal prediction, about ten times below that predicted by the epidemiologists.
Is this discrepancy possible? Is the epidemic truly far less serious than conventional epidemiological models predicted? Or is China merely hiding the full extent of the problem?
After all, the WSJ itself reported in late January, China was explicitly manipulating the casualty number by listing pneumonia as the cause of death instead of coronavirus. Subsequent reports that Wuhan officials were rushing to cremate coronavirus casualties before they could be counted did not add to the credibility of the official data.
But the biggest hit to the narrative and China’s officially reported epidemic numbers came overnight, when a slip up in China’s Tencent may have revealed the true extent of the coronavirus epidemic on the mainland. And it is nothing short than terrifying.
As the Taiwan Times reports, over the weekend, “Tencent seems to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures“, and were far closer to the catastrophic epidemic projections made by Jonathan Read.
According to the report, late on Saturday evening, Tencent, on its webpage titled “Epidemic Situation Tracker”, showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.
And while the number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300, most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government’s “official” numbers that day.
Disturbing images of Wuhan residents dropping unresponsive to the floor have emerged on Instagram following the diseased Chinese city’s coronavirus lockdown.
This was not the first time Tencent has done this: as Taiwan Times notes, Chinese netizens have noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.
This is where it gets even more bizarre: contrary to claims that this was just a “fat finger” mistyping of data, observant Chinese netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, it shows a comparison with the previous day’s data which demonstrates a “reasonable” incremental increase, much like comparisons of official numbers.
This led many in the mainland to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and “processed” data.
In short, two camps have emerged: one, the more optimistic, speculates that a coding problem could be causing the real “internal” data to accidentally appear. The other, far more pessimistically inclined, believes that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers, as “the “internal” data held by Beijing may not reflect the true extent of the epidemic.”
Indeed, as repeatedly pointed out here and according to multiple sources in Wuhan, many coronavirus patients are unable to receive treatment and die outside of hospitals. Furthermore, a severe shortage of test kits also leads to a lower number of diagnosed cases of infection and death. In addition, there have been many reports of doctors being ordered to list other forms of death instead of coronavirus to keep the death toll artificially low.
What is the truth?
the report is right, confirmed cases and deaths in China could be far closer to the catastrophic epidemic projections made by Jonathan Read.
On late Sunday evening, Tencent, on its webpage titled “Epidemic Situation Tracker”, showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.
And while the number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300, most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
The Daily Star reports that “thick fog” across the city could be the result of smoke from crematoriums burning coronavirus-infected bodies “24 hours a day”.
And while it appears China has resorted to mass cremation of those who died of coronavirus in Wuhan, Taiwan Times reported Wednesday that China’s Tencent might have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.
And now a major fire has possibly broken out across part of Wuhan, is this more evidence burning?
We leave it up to readers, but keep this in mind: on Jan 29, Zeng Guang, the chief scientist of epidemiology at China’s CDC, made a rare candid admission about why Chinese officials cannot tell people the truth in an interview with the state-run tabloid Global Times: “The officials need to think about the political angle and social stability in order to keep their positions.“
And then, on Monday, none other than China Xi’s called on all officials to quickly work together to contain the Coronavirus at a rare meeting of top leaders, saying the outcome would “directly impact social stability in the country.”
Well, if China is most concerned about social stability – as it should be for a nation of 1.4 billion – it is easy to comprehend why the entire political apparatus in China would be geared to presenting numbers which seem somewhat credible – in light of the barrage of videos of people dying on the street – but not so terrifying as to cause a countrywide panic.
Then again, if China indeed had over 154,000 cases and almost 25,000 deaths as of 5 days ago, then no attempts to mask the full extent and true severity of the pandemic have any hope of “containing” the truth.
Gordon Chang: “Overwhelmed” Chinese Authorities Are Falsifying Death Toll From Coronavirus
With at least 425 dead (amid an almost nation-wide community lockdown), one outspoken China expert is saying that the number represents a false estimate fabricated by a country notorious for secrecy and censorship.
Gordon Chang, who authored the book “The Coming Collapse of China”, explained on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” last night that “local Chinese authorities have just lost the ability to pick up corpses due to a breakdown in government.”
“So really what we are having right now is, they are completely overwhelmed,” Chang added.
“They are not able to keep accurate statistics. So what we are witnessing is essentially a breakdown in government and keeping accurate statistics is a very minor part of their priorities right now.”
Chang said that while he understands the preventative measure, he believes the quarantine has “made the problem worse.”
“I can understand why they want to quarantine but remember, the Wuhan mayor said about 5 million people from his city left before the quarantine was imposed,” he said.
“Also right now the quarantine has aggravated a problem and that is [that] people can’t get to hospitals, so they are at home…they are dying.”
“They are infecting other people in their households because they are not, in a sense, quarantined from wives, husbands, brothers, sisters,” he continued.
“The quarantine has made the problem worse. It’s also created panic. That panic has had consequences on, for instance, social cohesion which is absolutely necessary if you want to beat an epidemic.”
“It’s not just Wuhan,” he said. “Many Virologists think that [conditions in] Wuhan will be duplicated in cities like Shanghai, maybe even Beijing. Clearly there is fear everywhere throughout China right now.”
“This is only going to get worse,” Chang concluded, adding the virus will likely not be contained until “April or May.”
Apparently confirming Chang’s warning, The Daily Mail reports a Wuhan medic has said there are more deaths from coronavirus than reported, as patients are dying before they can even be tested for the virus.
Hospital worker Jeisi Luo, not his real name, also made the shocking claim that there are far more cases than official figures suggest because the waiting list for diagnosis is too long.
Asked about the virus while traveling abroad last week, Trump said: “We have it totally under control”. In a separate Twitter posting, he offered reassurance but scant detail for his confidence. By Associated Press Updated On: 05:53 PST, Jan 31, 2020
WASHINGTON: Wuhan coronavirus: Donald Trump says deadly outbreak ‘very well under control’ as WHO declares a global emergency. President Donald Trump regaled a friendly New Jersey campaign crowd with his thoughts about impeachment, the economy, the border wall, local politics and much more.
But he was conspicuously quiet on January 28 about one big issue keeping much of the globe on pins and needles: the spread of a deadly new type of coronavirus. It has killed more than 170 people in China, sickened thousands more there and led to a handful of confirmed cases in the US, including the first US case of person-to-person transmission reported on by health officials. The State Department on January 30 advised all US citizens against traveling to China.
Trump, a self-described germaphobe, generally has discussed the virus in broad terms, but he offered some of his most extensive comments on the issue to date during an appearance on January 30 at a Michigan manufacturing plant. “Hopefully, it won’t be as bad as some people think it could be, but we’re working very closely with them (Chinese) and with a lot of other people and a lot of other countries, he said. “We think we have it very well under control.”
The Birth Pains Are Growing Stronger….
One of the signs of ruling class collapse is when they can no longer enforce the rules that maintain them as a ruling class. When the Romans started making exceptions to republican governance, it was a matter of time before someone simply decided the rules no longer applied to them. Perhaps the robot historians will consider Obama our Marius or Sulla. Maybe that person is in the near future. Either way, the rule of law is over and what comes next is the rule of men.
“Man will ultimately be governed by God or by tyrants.” as in Nancy Pelosi (D-San Fran-feces)
Our government has been overthrown. As evidenced by Trump’s capitulation on the border, his recent servitude to the GMO industry and his acquiescence to the warmongers, our President has been compromised. Our liberties are being eliminated one by one. Gun confiscation is next. The Constitution is gasping its last breaths. Our borders are destroyed and our culture has been turned upside down by every perversion known to man.
The watchman does not confuse truth with consensus. The Watchman does not confuse God’s word with the word of those who happen to hold power at present, or with the opinion of the majority. This is because powerholders and the majority can fall victim to a lying spirit-and this means a power that actually seizes the majority of experts, the political leadership, and the public.
Everything is right on schedule and, now, the time is come to remove one of the final obstacles standing in the way of a New World Order: The United States Constitution – even if, over the course of many decades, it has already been greatly diminished by the B.E.A.S.T. system; or, more specifically, Bullshit Emerging As Strategic Totalitarianism (B.E.A.S.T.).
They are tolerant of everything except dissenting values and opinions — meaning, of course, they are tolerant of nothing that matters, only themselves.”
Let Me Make This Abundantly Clear. (I Am Apolitical) While I Have a General Distaste for Electric Cars and Politicians No Matter the Party They Belong To, I Am Unashamedly Politically a Bible Believing Conservative Christian. I Have a Severe Distrust of Government. I Believe It Is the Most Inefficient and Ineffective Way to Accomplish Most Things. While I Strongly Disagree with Liberals/Progressives and Conservative on Most Political Issues, and While I Believe Liberals/Progressives and Most Politicians Are Misguided and Naive About What Big Government Will Eventually Result In, I Strive to Not Question Their Motives. At the Same Time, I Find Myself in Agreement with Conservative on Some Issues, and I Do Not Believe Electing Republicans Is the Answer to Everything. Sadly, the Main Difference Between Republicans and Democrats Is How Quickly They Want to Drive the Car Towards the Cliff. Put, I Do Not Believe the Government Is the Solution for Everything. I Do Not Place Any Faith, Trust, or Hope in Any Politicians to Fix What Is Wrong with the World. “Come Lord Jesus!” (Revelation 22:20) SRH…
The Watchman does not confuse truth with consensus. The watchman does not confuse God’s word with the word of those who happen to hold power at present, or with the opinion of the majority. This is because powerholders and the majority can fall victim to a lying spirit-and; this means a power that seizes the majority of experts, the political leadership, and the public.StevieRay Hansen
If you have a news scoop or an interesting story for us, please reach out at info@HNewsWire.com
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