New Chinese Virus ‘Will Have Infected Thousands’, “Four Horseman” Diseases, a Look Back at What China Done

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Coronavirus (“Chinese virus”) kills the oldest and has no respect for authority, Many of the most powerful people in the world are old, and coronavirus does not discriminate based on social status. Deaths are now hitting at high levels (not of death but of status), which can change the political conflicts of our world…

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HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at `4:35 PM…

  • 5th US Coronavirus infection confirmed by CDC in 4 states (AZ, CA, IL, WA)
  • CDC calls the virus an  “emerging public health threat,” adding that the threat is “serious.”
  • 2082 cases, 56 Official deaths
  • Incubation is asymptomatic, contagious, and can be as long as 14 days
  • 5M may have left Wuhan for Lunar New Year
  • 1st case was Dec 1 NOT Dec 31 so infect pop may be much bigger
  • US, Russia, Thailand begin plans for evacuation
  • Premier Li Keqiang charged with leading government’s task force
  • 3 Beijing hospitals using AIDS drugs to treat the virus

Asked about the virus while traveling abroad last week, Trump said: “We have it totally under control”. In a separate Twitter posting, he offered reassurance but scant detail for his confidence.
By Associated Press
Updated On: 05:53 PST, Jan 31, 2020

WASHINGTON: Wuhan coronavirus: Donald Trump says deadly outbreak ‘very well under control’ as WHO declares a global emergency. President Donald Trump regaled a friendly New Jersey campaign crowd with his thoughts about impeachment, the economy, the border wall, local politics and much more.

But he was conspicuously quiet on January 28 about one big issue keeping much of the globe on pins and needles: the spread of a deadly new type of coronavirus. It has killed more than 170 people in China, sickened thousands more there and led to a handful of confirmed cases in the US, including the first US case of person-to-person transmission reported on by health officials. The State Department on January 30 advised all US citizens against traveling to China.

Trump, a self-described germaphobe, generally has discussed the virus in broad terms, but he offered some of his most extensive comments on the issue to date during an appearance on January 30 at a Michigan manufacturing plant. “Hopefully, it won’t be as bad as some people think it could be, but we’re working very closely with them (Chinese) and with a lot of other people and a lot of other countries, he said. “We think we have it very well under control.”

The Birth Pains Are Growing Stronger….

Situation Summary

CDC is closely monitoring an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus (termed “2019-nCoV”) that was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and which continues to expand. Chinese health officials have reported more than a thousand infections with 2019-nCoV in China, including outside of Hubei Province. Infections with 2019-nCoV also are being reported in a growing number of international locations, including the United States, where 5 cases in travelers from Wuhan have been confirmed in four states (AZ, CA, IL, WA) as of January 26, 2020.

Source and Spread of the Virus

Chinese health authorities were the first to post the full genome of the 2019-nCoV in GenBank  El , the NIH genetic sequence database, and in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID Z ) portal, an action which has facilitated detection of this virus. On January 24, 2020, CDC posted in GenBank the full genome of the 2019-nCoV virus detected in the first U.S. patient from Washington state. The virus Chinese health authorities were the first to post the full genome of the 2019-nCoV in GenBank  El, the NIH genetic sequence database, and in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID Cl ) portal, an action which has facilitated detection of this virus. On January 24, 2020, CDC posted in GenBank the full genome of the 2019-nCoV virus detected in the first U.S. patient from Washington state. The virus genetic sequence from the patient in Washington is nearly identical to the sequences posted from China. The available sequences suggest a likely single, recent emergence from a virus related to bat coronaviruses and the SARS coronavirus. The available sequence information does not provide any information about the severity of associated illness or transmissibility of the virus.

Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak in Wuhan, China reportedly had some link to a large seafood and animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. However, a growing number of patients reportedly have not had exposure to animal markets, and there is evidence that person-to-person spread is occurring. At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people. Learn what is known about the spread of newly emerged coronaviruses.

Illness Severity

Both MERS and SARS have been known to cause severe illness in people. The complete clinical picture with regard to 2019-nCoV is still not fully clear. Reported illnesses have ranged from infected people with little to no symptoms to people being severely ill and dying. Learn more about the symptoms associated with 2019- nCoV.

There are ongoing investigations to learn more. This is a rapidly evolving situation and information will be updated as it becomes available.

Risk Assessment

Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including whether and how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications).

Investigations are ongoing to learn more, but the person-to-person spread of 2019-nCoV is occurring. Chinese officials report that sustained person-to-person spread in the community is occurring in China. Person-to-person spread in the United States has not yet been detected, but it’s likely to occur to some extent. It’s important to note that person-to-person spread can happen on a continuum. Some viruses are highly contagious (like measles), while other viruses are less so. It’s important to know this in order to better assess the risk posed by this virus. While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.

CDC recommends getting vaccinated, taking everyday preventive actions to stop the spread of germs, and taking flu antivirals if prescribed.

And the politicking has begun…

Update (1510ET): CDC reports that a fifth infection has been confirmed in the US (in Arizona), calling the coronavirus an “emerging public health threat,” says the threat is “serious.”

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HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at `3:05 PM …

Chinese Nurse Says 90,000 Already Infected In Emotional Plea For Help

A viral video, reposted on Twitter 48 hours ago, has more than 800k views and reveals an urgent message from a Wuhan nurse, who claims more than 90,000 people in China have been infected with the fast-spreading coronavirus

An unverified translation of the nurse, posted by @purplelovehime, has been retweeted more than 13.7k times since Saturday, states: “I am Jin Wei. I am currently inside the Wuhan outbreak region, Han Hou area. I would like to describe the condition inside the Hubei province, as well as the outbreak situation in entire China. Currently, there are already 90,000 cases of pneumonia contraction.” 

“What is the rate of contraction? If one person contracted this disease and is not properly quarantined and treated, this I individual will infect 14 people that came in contact with him. That is a significant multiplier. During the spring festival, in our culture, families like to get together, dine together. But this is unlike any other years. I hope that people can stay home, do not gather, and do not visit families. There is a spring festival every year. If everyone can stay safe, you can always get together later,” the unverified translation of the nurse said. 

The translation went on to say that medical supplies from bio suits, medical masks, goggles, and gloves “are in great shortages.” 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1220802981408448512

The nurse, in an emotional plea, said everyone in Wuhan and surrounding cities to “not go out! Stay home!” 

The translation ended with the nurse delivering some “very bad news:”

The coronavirus has mutated. It is now a second-generation virus. When it was still in its first generation, we were still able to treat this… However, after the last mutation, it became deadly… The rate of infection are now increasing exponentially. So please remember do not go out, do not visit people, do not gather in a group, do not have dinner party.”

We noted on Sunday that about 5 million residents had already left Wuhan before the lockdown started. This could suggest that many people carrying the coronavirus, during the incubation period, could spread the virus without them evening knowing it. 

“From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during the incubation period,” said Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), adding that the incubation period lasted from one to 14 days. “Some patients have normal temperatures, and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” Ma said.

Summary 1/26/2020 at 3:01 PM CST

  • Toronto health officials to announce first ‘presumptive case’ of coronavirus in Canada
  • 1497 Cases Worldwide; 56 Deaths: 3% official mortality rate (SARS was 11%)
  • 18 Chinese cities – 56 million people – quarantined
  • President Xi said China faces a ‘grave situation’ as the spread is ‘accelerating’
  • US and Russia planning evacuation of citizens from Wuhan
  • Australia and Malaysia join the list of global nations with nCoV cases, in addition to France, Pakistan, Singapore, the US and Nepal
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping empowered local governments and said teams from Beijing will be sent to severely impacted areas to strengthen front-line prevention and containment
  • The US and France chartered planes to evacuate diplomats and nationals in containment zones
  • The director of the CDC says she expects cases of human-to-human transmission in the US
  • China banned all domestic tour groups immediately and overseas group tours from Jan 27
  • Starbucks and China said they were closing some stores in China
  • Wuhan is building a second emergency hospital, this one with 1300 beds
  • 3 doctors in Beijing who visited Wuhan are confirmed to have the virus
  • 4th US Coronavirus Case Confirmed In LA

China has already closed off 17 cities and locked down tens of millions of people to prevent further transmission of the virus. Any attempt to limit the spread has likely failed.  Source: zerohedge.com/ HNewsWire

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4th US Coronavirus Case Confirmed In LA…

HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at `1:05 PM …

Summary:

  • 4th US case confirmed in Los Angeles
  • 2082 cases, 56 Official deaths
  • Incubation is asymptomatic, contagious, and can be as long as 14 days
  • 5M may have left Wuhan for Lunar New Year
  • 1st case was Dec 1 NOT Dec 31 so infect pop may be much bigger
  • US, Russia, Thailand begin plans for evacuation
  • Premier Li Keqiang charged with leading government’s task force
  • 3 Beijing hospitals using AIDS drugs to treat a virus

*  *  *

Update (2pmET): It’s official: The Wuhan coronavirus has arrived in the second largest city in America. The LA County Department of Public Health just confirmed what is now the fourth case discovered in the US.

CBS Los Angeles@CBSLA

JUST IN: The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has confirmed the first case of the novel coronavirus in Los Angeles County. https://cbsloc.al/37A9REw Public Health Officials Confirm First Case Of Novel Coronavirus In LA CountyThe Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has confirmed the first case of the novel coronavirus in Los Angeles County.losangeles.cbslocal.com1912:48 PM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy35 people are talking about this

4th US Coronavirus Case Confirmed In LA… HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at `1:05 PM … Summary: 4th US case 

As we noted earlier, California has dozens of suspected cases, many of which have been tested and cleared. But some still remain. We suspect this won’t be the last case in Cali (they’ve already confirmed 2). The virus has also been discovered in Illinois and Washington state.

Remember when Trump said the Chinese had things ‘under control’?

Update (1240ET): Just as we expected, the outbreak-related news out of China went from bad to worse on Sunday, as Wuhan’s Mayor not only informed the public that he suspects the number of cases in the city to increase by a considerable margin (as we mentioned below), but also that some 5 million residents of Wuhan – roughly half of the city’s population – had already left the city before the quarantine was fully implemented. Some left early last week for the lunar new year holiday, while others fled after learning about Beijing’s plans to cut off the city from the outside world (except for the flow of personnel and supplies needed to fight the outbreak).

Anybody who tries to leave Wuhan on Sunday will find the roads blocked and guards ordering them to turn back.

The barricade, at one of the tolls for highways exiting the city, was blocked with red and yellow plastic barriers and cones.

“Nobody can leave,” a policeman told AFP.

But that’s far from the only disturbing news to emerge in the past few hours.

To try and assuage citizens’ frustration about the virus overshadowing the LNY holiday, Beijing announced an extension of the holiday. That should take a bigger bite out of China’s GDP as factories, offices and government services will remain shuttered – but ideally, China’s battered travel and tourism industry might be able to make up for some of the hit. As we noted earlier, Suzhou, a factory hub, was the first city to announce a holiday-like shutdown of the industry until Feb. 8. China’s top transportation official confirmed on Sunday that travel has plummeted for the holiday. On Saturday, overall transportation dropped by 28.8% from the same day last year. Railway transportation fell by 41.5%, roads 25% and passenger flights 41.6%.

After the third case was confirmed in California on Sunday, health officials in Virginia have announced that three patients suspected to have contracted the virus are under observation, according to Fox. More alarmingly, a student at Connecticut’s Wesleyan University is being monitored for the virus after reporting a fever and a cough. Though it has yet to be confirmed, this underscores the difficulty in stopping the spread of the virus to the US, as Chinese students return to their American schools for the new semester, as the Hartford Courant reports. More suspected cases have been reported in California and Texas (though the Texas cases have mostly been cleared). University officials at Wesleyan said they’ve been in touch with everyone that the sick student – whose name was not released – has been in contact with.

In a sign that the WHO is facing pressure to finally declare the outbreak a global health emergency (which it declined to do last week), WHO Director-General Tedros said in a tweet that he was on his way to Beijing to “confer” with top Chinese officials and health experts about the outbreak. Underlining the gravity of the situation, President Xi has placed his No. 2, Premier Li Keqiang, to lead the team monitoring the coronavirus as the outbreak worsens.

On Sunday, Ma Xiaowei, China’s National Health Commission, revealed that the incubation period for the virus is around 10 days – though the shortest case was 1 day, and longest 14 – and, more importantly, that those who have contracted the virus might be contagious before symptoms emerge. That wasn’t the case for the SARS outbreak in 2003, and it will make the virus much more difficult to contain. Ma added that there are signs the virus is adapting to spread even more quickly from human to human, per the SCMP

Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told a press conference that battling the outbreak was complicated, particularly as it had been discovered that the new virus could be transmitted even during incubation period, which did not happen with Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome).

“From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during incubation period,” Ma said, adding that the incubation period lasted from one to 14 days.

“Some patients have normal temperatures and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” he said.

Ma said also that the virus had adapted to humans and appeared to have become more transmissible.

“There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult.”

The authorities had also not ruled out the possibility of the virus mutating in the future, he said, which meant it could spread to different age groups.

To date, most of the people infected are in the 40-60 age range, health officials said earlier.

SARS had an incubation period of 2-7 days and was not infectious during that time. And it still killed more than 800 people after infecting more than 8,000 around the world.

Circling back to the mad rush to leave Wuhan, while the city has 11 million official residents, it also hosts millions of more guest workers, noted CNBC’s, Eunice Yoon. Interestingly, as more cities declared travel bans on Sunday, Shantou, a city in Guangdong Province, overturned its decision, saying it will monitor people, vehicles, and ships entering and city, but said there will be no travel restrictions on buses, ride-shares, and taxis. Yoon speculated that the city pulled the plan after being contacted by senior party officials so as not to set an “every-town-for-itself” precedent.

Eunice Yoon@onlyyoontvReplying to @onlyyoontv

Interesting reversal by Shantou in Guangdong Province. City sent new notice overturning previous decision. Now says will monitor people, vehicles, ships entering city but no travel restrictions. All taxi, car-hailing, buses to operate normally. Vehicles only need disinfection.175:10 AM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy16 people are talking about this

Eunice Yoon@onlyyoontvReplying to @onlyyoontv

My guess is top Chinese officials realized the potential domino effect Shantou’s decision could have— triggering a possible “every-town-for-itself” mentality across #China and maybe national paralysis. Likely someone high up contacted Shantou to get locals to pull the notice.245:11 AM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacySee Eunice Yoon’s other Tweets

Fortunately, few new deaths have been reported so far on Sunday. But the count of confirmed cases had climbed to 2082, and – as the mayor said – many more cases will likely be confirmed by Monday morning local time. Meanwhile, the US, Russia, Thailand, and South Korea are still plotting an evacuation for citizens stuck in Wuhan.

As doctors desperately search for a cure or vaccine, three Beijing hospitals designed as coronavirus treatment centers have reportedly started treating patients with a combination of anti-HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir. The two powerful retrovirals are sold in a combination under the brand name Kaletra, which is produced by AbbVie. Research on 41 Wuhan cases published in Friday’s edition of The Lancet medical journal noted that the drugs were useful in treating SARS, which was also a coronavirus, per SCMP.

“Online rumors say that an anti-Aids drug has been used and proved to be effective in treating the coronavirus,” according to a statement by Beijing Municipal Health Commission. “The National Health Commission has recommended the rumored names to treat the coronavirus before and we have Lopinavir/Ritonavir in stock in Beijing,”

Three Beijing hospitals designated to treat confirmed coronavirus cases – Beijing Ditan Hospital, Beijing Youan Hospital, and No 5 Medical Center of PLA General Hospital – have begun using this therapy for treatment, the statement added.

The two drugs are antiretrovirals, which block the ability of HIV to bind with healthy cells and reproduce, and are often used in combination to treat the illness.

CNBC’s Yoon shared another treatment strategy that relies on even more common medications, including Tamiflu.

Eunice Yoon@onlyyoontvReplying to @onlyyoontv

Plan 1: Moxifloxacin 0.4Qd or Levofloxacin (no history of allergy to Quinolone) + Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) 75mg BID, 5 days
Plan 2: Intravenous drip of Ceftriaxone 2.0 + Saline 250ml + Azithromycin 0.25 Qd, taken after meal, quarantined, apply for 2019-nCoV testing kit.
(Source is..2312:25 PM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy19 people are talking about this

Still, not enough research has been done to definitively confirm that these medications are effective in combating the virus. At last check, Beijing has reported 51 cases of the virus, 49 of which remain hospitalized, while two have been cured and one remains in critical condition.

Scientists are still racing to produce a vaccine. Hopefully, one will be found before the worst-case scenario projected by some epidemiologists becomes a reality. Until then, it looks like Abbvie will see a substantial bump in sales. But in the meantime, maybe officials in Beijing can send some of those AIDS drugs down to Wuhan. Or they could at least send over a few truckloads of Tamiflu.

* * *

Update (0950ET): As the world is on edge with the rise of the number of officially reported coronavirus infections (and deaths), the mayor of Wuhan said Sunday that he expects new cases to jump by 1,000. 

Secret Beijing@Secret_Beijing

#Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang is now hosting a press conference in Wuhan. “1000 new cases of #coronavirus are expected in Wuhan at the moment.” Many netizens are outrageous about the slow reaction of the local govt over the outbreak and ask him to take responsibility for it.

View image on Twitter

58:18 AM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacySee Secret Beijing’s other Tweets

Aria Chen@ariahychen

Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang said there’ll likely be 1,000 more confirmed cases. That’s an estimate from the current 2209 suspected cases & 643 other under observation.

View image on Twitter

48:24 AM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacySee Aria Chen’s other Tweets

Mayor Zhou Xianwang told Reuters and other journalists in a briefing that Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, could soon report an additional 1,000 new cases, which will push total cases across Mainland China to about 3,000. 

Xianwang said the city is constructing several new hospitals to deal with infected patients. 

He said the city had received new supplies of protective gear including biological suits, masks, and glasses, which have been in short supply

Xinqi Su 蘇昕琪@XinqiSu

Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang suggested residents quarantining themselves at home to put up a signboard at their doorstep to “notify others and rationally turn LNY visitors away”.

View image on Twitter

117:29 AM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacySee Xinqi Su 蘇昕琪’s other Tweets

If Xianwang is correct about the increase of new cases, this could mean by the end of Sunday, a total of 3,000 cases could be confirmed across the world, and suggest that Jonathan Read’s model of 250 thousand infected in the next several weeks could become a reality.

* * *

Hundreds of medical personnel are rushing to Wuhan following yesterday’s tragic death of Doctor Liang Wudong, of the ENT department of Hubei Xinhua Hospital, who died Saturday while fighting to suppress the virus. The South China Morning Post reports that 1,350 medics (presumably from the PLA) have already arrived in the city, and another 1,000 are expected to arrive soon.

As the number of confirmed cases surges past 2,000, China is scrambling to build not one, but two, SARS treatment-model hospitals in Wuhan (remember, Wuhan is a massive city of 11 million). Authorities have told the press that they expect both hospitals and their combined 2,300 beds to be operational within half a month.

Even though researchers have purportedly cast doubt on the theory that the coronavirus didn’t make the jump from animals to humans thanks to a shady food market that trafficking in live wild animals, officials in Beijing on Sunday banned the sale of live wild animals, including bats and snakes, at markets, supermarkets, restaurants and e-commerce platforms across the country. But we thought eating bats was a delicacy and an ingrained cultural practice not to be criticized or stifled?

As we reported last night (Sunday morning in Beijing), health officials in Hubei Province confirmed thirteen more deaths on Saturday, while another was reported in Henan Province. Perhaps most alarmingly, last night, we learned that a patient has reportedly succumbed to the virus in Shanghai as well. In that case, the victim was an 88-year-old man who was suffering from preexisting health issues. AFP adds that 40 cases have been confirmed in the city: 37 stable, one critical, one recovered, and one (88yo man with comorbidities) died. They are also investigating 95 additional suspected cases. These weren’t the first deaths outside of Hubei, but, according to the New York Times, “the death in Shanghai, which is among China’s most populous cities and a major commercial hub, is likely to add to anxieties about the disease’s spread.”

Over in the US, officials confirmed a third case of nCoV early Sunday. The patient is being treated in isolation at a hospital in Orange County, Calif., a wealthy suburban California county known for its (relative) conservatism. The CDC notified health officials in the county that the patient had tested positive on Saturday, according to a statement obtained by CNN. The individual is said to be in “good condition”. State and federal officials are tracking down anybody who might have had contact with the patient, who recently traveled from Wuhan to the US. Two previous cases were confirmed in Illinois and Washington state.

Additionally, Japan confirmed its fourth case of infection, Thailand confirmed its 8th case, Hong Kong confirmed its sixth case and Macau confirmed three new cases overnight. Paris has canceled a Lunar New Year parade

AFP reported the Shanghai cases late yesterday in the US, but the American press has, for some reason, neglected to emphasize, or even mention, this alarming factoid. We suspect it could have something to do with the stock market.

Across China, 688 new cases of the virus were diagnosed on Saturday. Some experts suspect that Beijing is concealing the true number of confirmed cases for fear of sparking ‘social panic’, just like the leadership did during the SARS outbreak in 2003 (which is what necessitated all of their promises of “transparency” in the first place).

This would also partially explain the vast discrepancies in case counts between the WHO, and media organizations like SCMP, which has consistently led the world in confirming new cases.

Regardless of the circumstances, Beijing’s first priority will always be ‘maintain social stability’ – no matter the cost, in lives or money. As one twitter wit argued, it looks like the medical field is going to have to learn this lesson the hard way.

THE LONG VIEW @HayekAndKeynes

Nobody trusts Chinese economic data but everybody is now relying on their healthcare data…

the medical field is going to learn this the hard way, the same way the finance community has had to8923:40 PM – Jan 25, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy213 people are talking about this

Despite all this, Pope Francis weighed in on the outbreak on Sunday, praising China’s efforts to contain the outbreak, and praying for the dead and the sick.

“I would like also to be close and to pray for the people who are sick because of the virus that has spread through China,” Francis told tens of thousands of onlookers gathered in St. Peter’s Square for his weekly homily and blessing. “May the Lord welcome the dead into his peace, comfort families and sustain the great commitment by the Chinese community that has already been put in place to combat the epidemic.”

Across Asia, prices of protective facemasks have stayed elevated amid rampant price-gouging.

There were a few updates on China’s expanding lockdown overnight. The eastern province of Shandong, with a population of 100 million, is the latest to announce that it will suspend long-distance bus service, following similar announcements in Tianjin, Beijing, and Xi’an. Sunday marks the beginning of a ban on all private vehicles traveling through Wuhan as authorities expand the quarantine/lockdown, which will remain in place indefinitely until the outbreak is truly ‘contained’. Amid the lockdown, South Korea, the US, Russia, France, and other governments have hatched plans to evacuate their citizens from Wuhan.

At least two Chinese provinces and three cities have ordered citizens to wear face masks in public, according to Al Jazeera.

And Reuters reports that a manufacturing hub in Suzhou expects its businesses to remain closed until at least Feb. 8, the latest reminder that when all is said and done, this outbreak will likely take a bite out of Chinese GDP (though whether the leadership decides to publicize the true extent of the deceleration in growth remains to be seen).

And as Wuhan continues to suffer from a withering shortage of medical supplies, one resident told the AFP that the entire city has been infected with pervasive despair.

“In the past week, we’ve not been able to go out and buy anything to eat,” Mashal Jamalzai, a political science student from Afghanistan told AFP. “We want to be evacuated as soon as possible, because their the virus, the hunger or the fear will kill us.”

The measure is required in the provinces of Guangdong in the south and Jiangxi in the center, plus the eastern city of Nanjing, Ma’anshan city in Anhui province and Xinyang city in Henan, according to local authorities.

After Friday’s selloff, we imagine investors will be paying close attention to news out of Wuhan as it completely overshadows other ‘important’ domestic news stories, like the Dems impeachment debacle, or the fact that Bernie Sanders is now on track to win Iowa and New Hampshire.

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5 Million Potential Carriers Have Left Wuhan As Coronavirus Appears To Mutate Into “More Transmissible” Form

HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at `12:20 PM

Over the weekend, there were numerous media reports published in hopes of easing fears that the coronavirus spread was uncontained, and informing the general public just how seriously China takes its quarantine of no less than 17 cities and roughly 60 million people. Take this report from AFP, according to which Police at a roadblock on the outskirts of Wuhan turned away cars trying to leave the virus-stricken epicenter on Saturday, as other anxious residents trapped inside spent the Lunar New Year stocking up on masks and medical supplies.

“Authorities have prevented anyone from leaving Wuhan, the city of 11 million people at the heart of the viral outbreak which has so far infected nearly 1,300 people and killed 41 others,” AFP writes adding that its reporters saw “a steady trickle of cars approaching the roadblocks around 20 kilometers (12 miles) east of the city center on Saturday morning, only for police in fluorescent jackets wearing masks to tell them to turn around.”

The barricade, at one of the tolls for highways exiting the city, was blocked with red and yellow plastic barriers and cones.

“Nobody can leave,” a policeman told AFP.

Yet, but… there is just one problem: the much-needed quarantine and lockdown were far too late, because as Wuhan’s mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday during a press conference, about 5 million residents had already left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday.  As the SCMP reports, many of Wuhan’s residents had already left the city for the holiday, while others rushed out after the lockdown was announced on Wednesday night.

As a result, only 9 million people were remaining in the city after the lockdown, with roughly a third of it, including countless cases of coronavirus, having already spread across China.

Due to the Chinese Lunar New Year and the #WuhanCoronavirus, more than 5 million people left Wuhan and 9 million people remain in the city which is under lockdown: Wuhan mayor pic.twitter.com/hi2NwsHmou— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) January 26, 2020

Meanwhile, in Chinese health officials ­warned the virus’ ­ability to spread was ­getting ­stronger, and in the worst possible news for China, Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told a press conference that battling the outbreak had become especially complicated, after it was discovered that the new virus could be transmitted even during incubation period, which did not happen with Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome).

In other words, as many as tens if not hundreds of thousands of Coronavirus carriers quietly fled, and may have infected as many as 3-4 other people each, depending on the R0 of the virus. 

“From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during the incubation period,” Ma said, adding that the incubation period lasted from one to 14 days. “Some patients have normal temperatures and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” he said.

As for the piece de resistance, Ma said also that the virus had adapted to humans and appeared to have become more transmissible: “There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult.”

Even China’s authorities sounds like they are giving up: Li Bin, deputy minister of the NHC said the authorities that the severe measures they had taken to control the spread of the virus – such as issuing travel bans and locking down cities – would at least delay the peak and “buy time to combat the next stage of the outbreak”, according to SCMP.

Yes, China is already bracing for “the next stage of the outbreak.”

To help tackle the epidemic, which has closed off 17 cities, Ma said that 2,360 military and civilian doctors and nurses had been sent to Wuhan, the city in which the outbreak was first detected at the end of last month. As the pressure has mounted on the city’s hospitals, the medical system has moved ever closer to collapse.

Many people who developed feverish symptoms were turned away by hospitals earlier in the week because there were not enough beds, local residents said earlier. Medical practitioners are also running seriously short of protective kits and are being forced to recycle goggles and masks. Ma said 2,400 hospital beds had been added in Wuhan, and the government was planning to add 5,000 more over the next three days.

Wang Jiangping, China’s vice-minister of industry and information technology, said China had the capacity to produce a maximum of 30,000 protective outfits per day, but that was less than a third of what was needed in Hubei.

Meanwhile, the hunt for the real source of the pandemic continues. China imposed a nationwide ban on wildlife trade on Sunday, as the outbreak was originally suspected to have originated at a seafood market in Wuhan, which also sold wild animals. However, a research paper published by the medical journal The Lancet on Saturday said the first confirmed case of the viral infection was a person who had not been to that market. Source: HNewsWire zerohedge.com/

Which begs the question we asked on Saturday: Did China Steal Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponize It?

HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at 7:03 AM, The fourth horseman of the Apocalypse will bring further warfare and terrible famines along with awful plagues and diseases. What is most amazing, or perhaps terrifying, is that the four horsemen of the Apocalypse are just “precursors” of even worse judgments that come later in the tribulation (Revelation chapters 8–9 and 16)…

Hundreds of medical personnel are rushing to Wuhan following yesterday’s tragic death of Doctor Liang Wudong, of the ENT department of Hubei Xinhua Hospital, who died Saturday while fighting to suppress the virus. The South China Morning Post reports that 1,350 medics (presumably from the PLA) have already arrived in the city, and another 1,000 are expected to arrive soon.

As the number of confirmed cases surges past 2,000, China is scrambling to build not one, but two, SARS treatment-model hospitals in Wuhan (remember, Wuhan is a massive city of 11 million). Authorities have told the press that they expect both hospitals and their combined 2,300 beds to be operational within half a month.

As we reported last night (Sunday morning in Beijing), health officials in Hubei Province confirmed thirteen more deaths on Saturday, while another was reported in Henan Province. Perhaps most alarmingly, last night, we learned that a patient has reportedly succumbed to the virus in Shanghai as well. In that case, the victim was an 88-year-old man who was suffering from preexisting health issues. AFP adds that 40 cases have been confirmed in the city: 37 stable, one critical, one recovered, and one (88yo man with comorbidities) died. They are also investigating 95 additional suspected cases. These weren’t the first deaths outside of Hubei, but, according to the New York Times, “the death in Shanghai, which is among China’s most populous cities and a major commercial hub, is likely to add to anxieties about the disease’s spread.”

Over in the US, officials confirmed a third case of nCoV early Sunday. The patient is being treated in isolation at a hospital in Orange County, Calif., a wealthy suburban California county known for its (relative) conservatism. The CDC notified health officials in the county that the patient had tested positive on Saturday, according to a statement obtained by CNN. The individual is said to be in “good condition”. State and federal officials are tracking down anybody who might have had contact with the patient, who recently traveled from Wuhan to the US. Two previous cases were confirmed in Illinois and Washington state.

Additionally, Japan confirmed its fourth case of infection, Thailand confirmed its 8th case, Hong Kong confirmed its sixth case and Macau confirmed three new cases overnight. Paris has canceled a Lunar New Year parade

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Summary

  • First, nCoV death reported in Shanghai
  • South Korea confirms the third case
  • Toronto health officials to announce first ‘presumptive case’ of coronavirus in Canada
  • 1975 Cases Worldwide; 56 deaths (still about a 3% mortality rate)
  • 18 Chinese cities – 56 million people – quarantined
  • President Xi said China faces a ‘grave situation’ as the spread is ‘accelerating’
  • US and Russia planning evacuation of citizens from Wuhan
  • Australia and Malaysia join the list of global nations with nCoV cases, in addition to France, Pakistan, Singapore, the US and Nepal
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping empowered local governments and said teams from Beijing will be sent to severely impacted areas to strengthen front-line prevention and containment
  • The US and France chartered planes to evacuate diplomats and nationals in containment zones
  • The director of the CDC says she expects cases of human-to-human transmission in the US
  • China banned all domestic tour groups immediately and overseas group tours from Jan 27
  • Starbucks and China said they were closing some stores in China
  • Wuhan is building a second emergency hospital, this one with 1300 beds
  • 3 doctors in Beijing who visited Wuhan are confirmed to have the virus

AFP reported the Shanghai cases late yesterday in the US, but the American press has, for some reason, neglected to emphasize, or even mention, this alarming factoid. We suspect it could have something to do with the stock market.

Across China, 688 new cases of the virus were diagnosed on Saturday. Some experts suspect that Beijing is concealing the true number of confirmed cases for fear of sparking ‘social panic’, just like the leadership did during the SARS outbreak in 2003 (which is what necessitated all of their promises of “transparency” in the first place).

This would also partially explain the vast discrepancies in case counts between the WHO, and media organizations like SCMP, which has consistently led the world in confirming new cases.

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