New Chinese Virus ‘Will Have Infected Thousands’, “Four Horseman” Diseases

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HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at `4:35 PM…

  • 5th US Coronavirus infection confirmed by CDC in 4 states (AZ, CA, IL, WA)
  • CDC calls the virus an  “emerging public health threat,” adding that the threat is “serious.”
  • 2082 cases, 56 Official deaths
  • Incubation is asymptomatic, contagious, and can be as long as 14 days
  • 5M may have left Wuhan for Lunar New Year
  • 1st case was Dec 1 NOT Dec 31 so infect pop may be much bigger
  • US, Russia, Thailand begin plans for evacuation
  • Premier Li Keqiang charged with leading government’s task force
  • 3 Beijing hospitals using AIDS drugs to treat the virus

Asked about the virus while traveling abroad last week, Trump said: “We have it totally under control”. In a separate Twitter posting, he offered reassurance but scant detail for his confidence.
By Associated Press
Updated On: 05:53 PST, Jan 31, 2020

WASHINGTON: Wuhan coronavirus: Donald Trump says deadly outbreak ‘very well under control’ as WHO declares a global emergency. President Donald Trump regaled a friendly New Jersey campaign crowd with his thoughts about impeachment, the economy, the border wall, local politics and much more.

But he was conspicuously quiet on January 28 about one big issue keeping much of the globe on pins and needles: the spread of a deadly new type of coronavirus. It has killed more than 170 people in China, sickened thousands more there and led to a handful of confirmed cases in the US, including the first US case of person-to-person transmission reported on by health officials. The State Department on January 30 advised all US citizens against traveling to China.

Trump, a self-described germaphobe, generally has discussed the virus in broad terms, but he offered some of his most extensive comments on the issue to date during an appearance on January 30 at a Michigan manufacturing plant. “Hopefully, it won’t be as bad as some people think it could be, but we’re working very closely with them (Chinese) and with a lot of other people and a lot of other countries, he said. “We think we have it very well under control.”

The Birth Pains Are Growing Stronger….

Situation Summary

CDC is closely monitoring an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus (termed “2019-nCoV”) that was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and which continues to expand. Chinese health officials have reported more than a thousand infections with 2019-nCoV in China, including outside of Hubei Province. Infections with 2019-nCoV also are being reported in a growing number of international locations, including the United States, where 5 cases in travelers from Wuhan have been confirmed in four states (AZ, CA, IL, WA) as of January 26, 2020.

Source and Spread of the Virus

Chinese health authorities were the first to post the full genome of the 2019-nCoV in GenBank  El , the NIH genetic sequence database, and in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID Z ) portal, an action which has facilitated detection of this virus. On January 24, 2020, CDC posted in GenBank the full genome of the 2019-nCoV virus detected in the first U.S. patient from Washington state. The virus Chinese health authorities were the first to post the full genome of the 2019-nCoV in GenBank  El, the NIH genetic sequence database, and in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID Cl ) portal, an action which has facilitated detection of this virus. On January 24, 2020, CDC posted in GenBank the full genome of the 2019-nCoV virus detected in the first U.S. patient from Washington state. The virus genetic sequence from the patient in Washington is nearly identical to the sequences posted from China. The available sequences suggest a likely single, recent emergence from a virus related to bat coronaviruses and the SARS coronavirus. The available sequence information does not provide any information about the severity of associated illness or transmissibility of the virus.

Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak in Wuhan, China reportedly had some link to a large seafood and animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. However, a growing number of patients reportedly have not had exposure to animal markets, and there is evidence that person-to-person spread is occurring. At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people. Learn what is known about the spread of newly emerged coronaviruses.

Illness Severity

Both MERS and SARS have been known to cause severe illness in people. The complete clinical picture with regard to 2019-nCoV is still not fully clear. Reported illnesses have ranged from infected people with little to no symptoms to people being severely ill and dying. Learn more about the symptoms associated with 2019- nCoV.

There are ongoing investigations to learn more. This is a rapidly evolving situation and information will be updated as it becomes available.

Risk Assessment

Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including whether and how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications).

Investigations are ongoing to learn more, but the person-to-person spread of 2019-nCoV is occurring. Chinese officials report that sustained person-to-person spread in the community is occurring in China. Person-to-person spread in the United States has not yet been detected, but it’s likely to occur to some extent. It’s important to note that person-to-person spread can happen on a continuum. Some viruses are highly contagious (like measles), while other viruses are less so. It’s important to know this in order to better assess the risk posed by this virus. While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.

CDC recommends getting vaccinated, taking everyday preventive actions to stop the spread of germs, and taking flu antivirals if prescribed.

And the politicking has begun…

Update (1510ET): CDC reports that a fifth infection has been confirmed in the US (in Arizona), calling the coronavirus an “emerging public health threat,” says the threat is “serious.”

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HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at `3:05 PM …

Chinese Nurse Says 90,000 Already Infected In Emotional Plea For Help

A viral video, reposted on Twitter 48 hours ago, has more than 800k views and reveals an urgent message from a Wuhan nurse, who claims more than 90,000 people in China have been infected with the fast-spreading coronavirus

An unverified translation of the nurse, posted by @purplelovehime, has been retweeted more than 13.7k times since Saturday, states: “I am Jin Wei. I am currently inside the Wuhan outbreak region, Han Hou area. I would like to describe the condition inside the Hubei province, as well as the outbreak situation in entire China. Currently, there are already 90,000 cases of pneumonia contraction.” 

“What is the rate of contraction? If one person contracted this disease and is not properly quarantined and treated, this I individual will infect 14 people that came in contact with him. That is a significant multiplier. During the spring festival, in our culture, families like to get together, dine together. But this is unlike any other years. I hope that people can stay home, do not gather, and do not visit families. There is a spring festival every year. If everyone can stay safe, you can always get together later,” the unverified translation of the nurse said. 

The translation went on to say that medical supplies from bio suits, medical masks, goggles, and gloves “are in great shortages.” 

The nurse, in an emotional plea, said everyone in Wuhan and surrounding cities to “not go out! Stay home!” 

The translation ended with the nurse delivering some “very bad news:”

The coronavirus has mutated. It is now a second-generation virus. When it was still in its first generation, we were still able to treat this… However, after the last mutation, it became deadly… The rate of infection are now increasing exponentially. So please remember do not go out, do not visit people, do not gather in a group, do not have dinner party.”

We noted on Sunday that about 5 million residents had already left Wuhan before the lockdown started. This could suggest that many people carrying the coronavirus, during the incubation period, could spread the virus without them evening knowing it. 

“From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during the incubation period,” said Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), adding that the incubation period lasted from one to 14 days. “Some patients have normal temperatures, and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” Ma said.

Summary 1/26/2020 at 3:01 PM CST

  • Toronto health officials to announce first ‘presumptive case’ of coronavirus in Canada
  • 1497 Cases Worldwide; 56 Deaths: 3% official mortality rate (SARS was 11%)
  • 18 Chinese cities – 56 million people – quarantined
  • President Xi said China faces a ‘grave situation’ as the spread is ‘accelerating’
  • US and Russia planning evacuation of citizens from Wuhan
  • Australia and Malaysia join the list of global nations with nCoV cases, in addition to France, Pakistan, Singapore, the US and Nepal
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping empowered local governments and said teams from Beijing will be sent to severely impacted areas to strengthen front-line prevention and containment
  • The US and France chartered planes to evacuate diplomats and nationals in containment zones
  • The director of the CDC says she expects cases of human-to-human transmission in the US
  • China banned all domestic tour groups immediately and overseas group tours from Jan 27
  • Starbucks and China said they were closing some stores in China
  • Wuhan is building a second emergency hospital, this one with 1300 beds
  • 3 doctors in Beijing who visited Wuhan are confirmed to have the virus
  • 4th US Coronavirus Case Confirmed In LA

China has already closed off 17 cities and locked down tens of millions of people to prevent further transmission of the virus. Any attempt to limit the spread has likely failed.  Source: zerohedge.com/ HNewsWire

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4th US Coronavirus Case Confirmed In LA…

HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at `1:05 PM …

Summary:

  • 4th US case confirmed in Los Angeles
  • 2082 cases, 56 Official deaths
  • Incubation is asymptomatic, contagious, and can be as long as 14 days
  • 5M may have left Wuhan for Lunar New Year
  • 1st case was Dec 1 NOT Dec 31 so infect pop may be much bigger
  • US, Russia, Thailand begin plans for evacuation
  • Premier Li Keqiang charged with leading government’s task force
  • 3 Beijing hospitals using AIDS drugs to treat a virus

*  *  *

Update (2pmET): It’s official: The Wuhan coronavirus has arrived in the second largest city in America. The LA County Department of Public Health just confirmed what is now the fourth case discovered in the US.

CBS Los Angeles@CBSLA

JUST IN: The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has confirmed the first case of the novel coronavirus in Los Angeles County. https://cbsloc.al/37A9REw Public Health Officials Confirm First Case Of Novel Coronavirus In LA CountyThe Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has confirmed the first case of the novel coronavirus in Los Angeles County.losangeles.cbslocal.com1912:48 PM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy35 people are talking about this

4th US Coronavirus Case Confirmed In LA… HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at `1:05 PM … Summary: 4th US case 

As we noted earlier, California has dozens of suspected cases, many of which have been tested and cleared. But some still remain. We suspect this won’t be the last case in Cali (they’ve already confirmed 2). The virus has also been discovered in Illinois and Washington state.

Remember when Trump said the Chinese had things ‘under control’?

Update (1240ET): Just as we expected, the outbreak-related news out of China went from bad to worse on Sunday, as Wuhan’s Mayor not only informed the public that he suspects the number of cases in the city to increase by a considerable margin (as we mentioned below), but also that some 5 million residents of Wuhan – roughly half of the city’s population – had already left the city before the quarantine was fully implemented. Some left early last week for the lunar new year holiday, while others fled after learning about Beijing’s plans to cut off the city from the outside world (except for the flow of personnel and supplies needed to fight the outbreak).

Anybody who tries to leave Wuhan on Sunday will find the roads blocked and guards ordering them to turn back.

The barricade, at one of the tolls for highways exiting the city, was blocked with red and yellow plastic barriers and cones.

“Nobody can leave,” a policeman told AFP.

But that’s far from the only disturbing news to emerge in the past few hours.

To try and assuage citizens’ frustration about the virus overshadowing the LNY holiday, Beijing announced an extension of the holiday. That should take a bigger bite out of China’s GDP as factories, offices and government services will remain shuttered – but ideally, China’s battered travel and tourism industry might be able to make up for some of the hit. As we noted earlier, Suzhou, a factory hub, was the first city to announce a holiday-like shutdown of the industry until Feb. 8. China’s top transportation official confirmed on Sunday that travel has plummeted for the holiday. On Saturday, overall transportation dropped by 28.8% from the same day last year. Railway transportation fell by 41.5%, roads 25% and passenger flights 41.6%.

After the third case was confirmed in California on Sunday, health officials in Virginia have announced that three patients suspected to have contracted the virus are under observation, according to Fox. More alarmingly, a student at Connecticut’s Wesleyan University is being monitored for the virus after reporting a fever and a cough. Though it has yet to be confirmed, this underscores the difficulty in stopping the spread of the virus to the US, as Chinese students return to their American schools for the new semester, as the Hartford Courant reports. More suspected cases have been reported in California and Texas (though the Texas cases have mostly been cleared). University officials at Wesleyan said they’ve been in touch with everyone that the sick student – whose name was not released – has been in contact with.

In a sign that the WHO is facing pressure to finally declare the outbreak a global health emergency (which it declined to do last week), WHO Director-General Tedros said in a tweet that he was on his way to Beijing to “confer” with top Chinese officials and health experts about the outbreak. Underlining the gravity of the situation, President Xi has placed his No. 2, Premier Li Keqiang, to lead the team monitoring the coronavirus as the outbreak worsens.

On Sunday, Ma Xiaowei, China’s National Health Commission, revealed that the incubation period for the virus is around 10 days – though the shortest case was 1 day, and longest 14 – and, more importantly, that those who have contracted the virus might be contagious before symptoms emerge. That wasn’t the case for the SARS outbreak in 2003, and it will make the virus much more difficult to contain. Ma added that there are signs the virus is adapting to spread even more quickly from human to human, per the SCMP

Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told a press conference that battling the outbreak was complicated, particularly as it had been discovered that the new virus could be transmitted even during incubation period, which did not happen with Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome).

“From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during incubation period,” Ma said, adding that the incubation period lasted from one to 14 days.

“Some patients have normal temperatures and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” he said.

Ma said also that the virus had adapted to humans and appeared to have become more transmissible.

“There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult.”

The authorities had also not ruled out the possibility of the virus mutating in the future, he said, which meant it could spread to different age groups.

To date, most of the people infected are in the 40-60 age range, health officials said earlier.

SARS had an incubation period of 2-7 days and was not infectious during that time. And it still killed more than 800 people after infecting more than 8,000 around the world.

Circling back to the mad rush to leave Wuhan, while the city has 11 million official residents, it also hosts millions of more guest workers, noted CNBC’s, Eunice Yoon. Interestingly, as more cities declared travel bans on Sunday, Shantou, a city in Guangdong Province, overturned its decision, saying it will monitor people, vehicles, and ships entering and city, but said there will be no travel restrictions on buses, ride-shares, and taxis. Yoon speculated that the city pulled the plan after being contacted by senior party officials so as not to set an “every-town-for-itself” precedent.

Eunice Yoon@onlyyoontvReplying to @onlyyoontv

Interesting reversal by Shantou in Guangdong Province. City sent new notice overturning previous decision. Now says will monitor people, vehicles, ships entering city but no travel restrictions. All taxi, car-hailing, buses to operate normally. Vehicles only need disinfection.175:10 AM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy16 people are talking about this

Eunice Yoon@onlyyoontvReplying to @onlyyoontv

My guess is top Chinese officials realized the potential domino effect Shantou’s decision could have— triggering a possible “every-town-for-itself” mentality across #China and maybe national paralysis. Likely someone high up contacted Shantou to get locals to pull the notice.245:11 AM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacySee Eunice Yoon’s other Tweets

Fortunately, few new deaths have been reported so far on Sunday. But the count of confirmed cases had climbed to 2082, and – as the mayor said – many more cases will likely be confirmed by Monday morning local time. Meanwhile, the US, Russia, Thailand, and South Korea are still plotting an evacuation for citizens stuck in Wuhan.

As doctors desperately search for a cure or vaccine, three Beijing hospitals designed as coronavirus treatment centers have reportedly started treating patients with a combination of anti-HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir. The two powerful retrovirals are sold in a combination under the brand name Kaletra, which is produced by AbbVie. Research on 41 Wuhan cases published in Friday’s edition of The Lancet medical journal noted that the drugs were useful in treating SARS, which was also a coronavirus, per SCMP.

“Online rumors say that an anti-Aids drug has been used and proved to be effective in treating the coronavirus,” according to a statement by Beijing Municipal Health Commission. “The National Health Commission has recommended the rumored names to treat the coronavirus before and we have Lopinavir/Ritonavir in stock in Beijing,”

Three Beijing hospitals designated to treat confirmed coronavirus cases – Beijing Ditan Hospital, Beijing Youan Hospital, and No 5 Medical Center of PLA General Hospital – have begun using this therapy for treatment, the statement added.

The two drugs are antiretrovirals, which block the ability of HIV to bind with healthy cells and reproduce, and are often used in combination to treat the illness.

CNBC’s Yoon shared another treatment strategy that relies on even more common medications, including Tamiflu.

Eunice Yoon@onlyyoontvReplying to @onlyyoontv

Plan 1: Moxifloxacin 0.4Qd or Levofloxacin (no history of allergy to Quinolone) + Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) 75mg BID, 5 days
Plan 2: Intravenous drip of Ceftriaxone 2.0 + Saline 250ml + Azithromycin 0.25 Qd, taken after meal, quarantined, apply for 2019-nCoV testing kit.
(Source is..2312:25 PM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy19 people are talking about this

Still, not enough research has been done to definitively confirm that these medications are effective in combating the virus. At last check, Beijing has reported 51 cases of the virus, 49 of which remain hospitalized, while two have been cured and one remains in critical condition.

Scientists are still racing to produce a vaccine. Hopefully, one will be found before the worst-case scenario projected by some epidemiologists becomes a reality. Until then, it looks like Abbvie will see a substantial bump in sales. But in the meantime, maybe officials in Beijing can send some of those AIDS drugs down to Wuhan. Or they could at least send over a few truckloads of Tamiflu.

* * *

Update (0950ET): As the world is on edge with the rise of the number of officially reported coronavirus infections (and deaths), the mayor of Wuhan said Sunday that he expects new cases to jump by 1,000. 

Secret Beijing@Secret_Beijing

#Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang is now hosting a press conference in Wuhan. “1000 new cases of #coronavirus are expected in Wuhan at the moment.” Many netizens are outrageous about the slow reaction of the local govt over the outbreak and ask him to take responsibility for it.

View image on Twitter

58:18 AM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacySee Secret Beijing’s other Tweets

Aria Chen@ariahychen

Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang said there’ll likely be 1,000 more confirmed cases. That’s an estimate from the current 2209 suspected cases & 643 other under observation.

View image on Twitter

48:24 AM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacySee Aria Chen’s other Tweets

Mayor Zhou Xianwang told Reuters and other journalists in a briefing that Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, could soon report an additional 1,000 new cases, which will push total cases across Mainland China to about 3,000. 

Xianwang said the city is constructing several new hospitals to deal with infected patients. 

He said the city had received new supplies of protective gear including biological suits, masks, and glasses, which have been in short supply

Xinqi Su 蘇昕琪@XinqiSu

Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang suggested residents quarantining themselves at home to put up a signboard at their doorstep to “notify others and rationally turn LNY visitors away”.

View image on Twitter

117:29 AM – Jan 26, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacySee Xinqi Su 蘇昕琪’s other Tweets

If Xianwang is correct about the increase of new cases, this could mean by the end of Sunday, a total of 3,000 cases could be confirmed across the world, and suggest that Jonathan Read’s model of 250 thousand infected in the next several weeks could become a reality.

* * *

Hundreds of medical personnel are rushing to Wuhan following yesterday’s tragic death of Doctor Liang Wudong, of the ENT department of Hubei Xinhua Hospital, who died Saturday while fighting to suppress the virus. The South China Morning Post reports that 1,350 medics (presumably from the PLA) have already arrived in the city, and another 1,000 are expected to arrive soon.

As the number of confirmed cases surges past 2,000, China is scrambling to build not one, but two, SARS treatment-model hospitals in Wuhan (remember, Wuhan is a massive city of 11 million). Authorities have told the press that they expect both hospitals and their combined 2,300 beds to be operational within half a month.

Even though researchers have purportedly cast doubt on the theory that the coronavirus didn’t make the jump from animals to humans thanks to a shady food market that trafficking in live wild animals, officials in Beijing on Sunday banned the sale of live wild animals, including bats and snakes, at markets, supermarkets, restaurants and e-commerce platforms across the country. But we thought eating bats was a delicacy and an ingrained cultural practice not to be criticized or stifled?

As we reported last night (Sunday morning in Beijing), health officials in Hubei Province confirmed thirteen more deaths on Saturday, while another was reported in Henan Province. Perhaps most alarmingly, last night, we learned that a patient has reportedly succumbed to the virus in Shanghai as well. In that case, the victim was an 88-year-old man who was suffering from preexisting health issues. AFP adds that 40 cases have been confirmed in the city: 37 stable, one critical, one recovered, and one (88yo man with comorbidities) died. They are also investigating 95 additional suspected cases. These weren’t the first deaths outside of Hubei, but, according to the New York Times, “the death in Shanghai, which is among China’s most populous cities and a major commercial hub, is likely to add to anxieties about the disease’s spread.”

Over in the US, officials confirmed a third case of nCoV early Sunday. The patient is being treated in isolation at a hospital in Orange County, Calif., a wealthy suburban California county known for its (relative) conservatism. The CDC notified health officials in the county that the patient had tested positive on Saturday, according to a statement obtained by CNN. The individual is said to be in “good condition”. State and federal officials are tracking down anybody who might have had contact with the patient, who recently traveled from Wuhan to the US. Two previous cases were confirmed in Illinois and Washington state.

Additionally, Japan confirmed its fourth case of infection, Thailand confirmed its 8th case, Hong Kong confirmed its sixth case and Macau confirmed three new cases overnight. Paris has canceled a Lunar New Year parade

AFP reported the Shanghai cases late yesterday in the US, but the American press has, for some reason, neglected to emphasize, or even mention, this alarming factoid. We suspect it could have something to do with the stock market.

Across China, 688 new cases of the virus were diagnosed on Saturday. Some experts suspect that Beijing is concealing the true number of confirmed cases for fear of sparking ‘social panic’, just like the leadership did during the SARS outbreak in 2003 (which is what necessitated all of their promises of “transparency” in the first place).

This would also partially explain the vast discrepancies in case counts between the WHO, and media organizations like SCMP, which has consistently led the world in confirming new cases.

Regardless of the circumstances, Beijing’s first priority will always be ‘maintain social stability’ – no matter the cost, in lives or money. As one twitter wit argued, it looks like the medical field is going to have to learn this lesson the hard way.

THE LONG VIEW @HayekAndKeynes

Nobody trusts Chinese economic data but everybody is now relying on their healthcare data…

the medical field is going to learn this the hard way, the same way the finance community has had to8923:40 PM – Jan 25, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy213 people are talking about this

Despite all this, Pope Francis weighed in on the outbreak on Sunday, praising China’s efforts to contain the outbreak, and praying for the dead and the sick.

“I would like also to be close and to pray for the people who are sick because of the virus that has spread through China,” Francis told tens of thousands of onlookers gathered in St. Peter’s Square for his weekly homily and blessing. “May the Lord welcome the dead into his peace, comfort families and sustain the great commitment by the Chinese community that has already been put in place to combat the epidemic.”

Across Asia, prices of protective facemasks have stayed elevated amid rampant price-gouging.

There were a few updates on China’s expanding lockdown overnight. The eastern province of Shandong, with a population of 100 million, is the latest to announce that it will suspend long-distance bus service, following similar announcements in Tianjin, Beijing, and Xi’an. Sunday marks the beginning of a ban on all private vehicles traveling through Wuhan as authorities expand the quarantine/lockdown, which will remain in place indefinitely until the outbreak is truly ‘contained’. Amid the lockdown, South Korea, the US, Russia, France, and other governments have hatched plans to evacuate their citizens from Wuhan.

At least two Chinese provinces and three cities have ordered citizens to wear face masks in public, according to Al Jazeera.

And Reuters reports that a manufacturing hub in Suzhou expects its businesses to remain closed until at least Feb. 8, the latest reminder that when all is said and done, this outbreak will likely take a bite out of Chinese GDP (though whether the leadership decides to publicize the true extent of the deceleration in growth remains to be seen).

And as Wuhan continues to suffer from a withering shortage of medical supplies, one resident told the AFP that the entire city has been infected with pervasive despair.

“In the past week, we’ve not been able to go out and buy anything to eat,” Mashal Jamalzai, a political science student from Afghanistan told AFP. “We want to be evacuated as soon as possible, because their the virus, the hunger or the fear will kill us.”

The measure is required in the provinces of Guangdong in the south and Jiangxi in the center, plus the eastern city of Nanjing, Ma’anshan city in Anhui province and Xinyang city in Henan, according to local authorities.

After Friday’s selloff, we imagine investors will be paying close attention to news out of Wuhan as it completely overshadows other ‘important’ domestic news stories, like the Dems impeachment debacle, or the fact that Bernie Sanders is now on track to win Iowa and New Hampshire.

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5 Million Potential Carriers Have Left Wuhan As Coronavirus Appears To Mutate Into “More Transmissible” Form

HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at `12:20 PM

Over the weekend, there were numerous media reports published in hopes of easing fears that the coronavirus spread was uncontained, and informing the general public just how seriously China takes its quarantine of no less than 17 cities and roughly 60 million people. Take this report from AFP, according to which Police at a roadblock on the outskirts of Wuhan turned away cars trying to leave the virus-stricken epicenter on Saturday, as other anxious residents trapped inside spent the Lunar New Year stocking up on masks and medical supplies.

“Authorities have prevented anyone from leaving Wuhan, the city of 11 million people at the heart of the viral outbreak which has so far infected nearly 1,300 people and killed 41 others,” AFP writes adding that its reporters saw “a steady trickle of cars approaching the roadblocks around 20 kilometers (12 miles) east of the city center on Saturday morning, only for police in fluorescent jackets wearing masks to tell them to turn around.”

The barricade, at one of the tolls for highways exiting the city, was blocked with red and yellow plastic barriers and cones.

“Nobody can leave,” a policeman told AFP.

Yet, but… there is just one problem: the much-needed quarantine and lockdown were far too late, because as Wuhan’s mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday during a press conference, about 5 million residents had already left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday.  As the SCMP reports, many of Wuhan’s residents had already left the city for the holiday, while others rushed out after the lockdown was announced on Wednesday night.

As a result, only 9 million people were remaining in the city after the lockdown, with roughly a third of it, including countless cases of coronavirus, having already spread across China.

Due to the Chinese Lunar New Year and the #WuhanCoronavirus, more than 5 million people left Wuhan and 9 million people remain in the city which is under lockdown: Wuhan mayor pic.twitter.com/hi2NwsHmou— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) January 26, 2020

Meanwhile, in Chinese health officials ­warned the virus’ ­ability to spread was ­getting ­stronger, and in the worst possible news for China, Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told a press conference that battling the outbreak had become especially complicated, after it was discovered that the new virus could be transmitted even during incubation period, which did not happen with Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome).

In other words, as many as tens if not hundreds of thousands of Coronavirus carriers quietly fled, and may have infected as many as 3-4 other people each, depending on the R0 of the virus. 

“From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during the incubation period,” Ma said, adding that the incubation period lasted from one to 14 days. “Some patients have normal temperatures and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” he said.

As for the piece de resistance, Ma said also that the virus had adapted to humans and appeared to have become more transmissible: “There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult.”

Even China’s authorities sounds like they are giving up: Li Bin, deputy minister of the NHC said the authorities that the severe measures they had taken to control the spread of the virus – such as issuing travel bans and locking down cities – would at least delay the peak and “buy time to combat the next stage of the outbreak”, according to SCMP.

Yes, China is already bracing for “the next stage of the outbreak.”

To help tackle the epidemic, which has closed off 17 cities, Ma said that 2,360 military and civilian doctors and nurses had been sent to Wuhan, the city in which the outbreak was first detected at the end of last month. As the pressure has mounted on the city’s hospitals, the medical system has moved ever closer to collapse.

Many people who developed feverish symptoms were turned away by hospitals earlier in the week because there were not enough beds, local residents said earlier. Medical practitioners are also running seriously short of protective kits and are being forced to recycle goggles and masks. Ma said 2,400 hospital beds had been added in Wuhan, and the government was planning to add 5,000 more over the next three days.

Wang Jiangping, China’s vice-minister of industry and information technology, said China had the capacity to produce a maximum of 30,000 protective outfits per day, but that was less than a third of what was needed in Hubei.

Meanwhile, the hunt for the real source of the pandemic continues. China imposed a nationwide ban on wildlife trade on Sunday, as the outbreak was originally suspected to have originated at a seafood market in Wuhan, which also sold wild animals. However, a research paper published by the medical journal The Lancet on Saturday said the first confirmed case of the viral infection was a person who had not been to that market. Source: HNewsWire zerohedge.com/

Which begs the question we asked on Saturday: Did China Steal Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponize It?

HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at 7:03 AM, The fourth horseman of the Apocalypse will bring further warfare and terrible famines along with awful plagues and diseases. What is most amazing, or perhaps terrifying, is that the four horsemen of the Apocalypse are just “precursors” of even worse judgments that come later in the tribulation (Revelation chapters 8–9 and 16)…

Hundreds of medical personnel are rushing to Wuhan following yesterday’s tragic death of Doctor Liang Wudong, of the ENT department of Hubei Xinhua Hospital, who died Saturday while fighting to suppress the virus. The South China Morning Post reports that 1,350 medics (presumably from the PLA) have already arrived in the city, and another 1,000 are expected to arrive soon.

As the number of confirmed cases surges past 2,000, China is scrambling to build not one, but two, SARS treatment-model hospitals in Wuhan (remember, Wuhan is a massive city of 11 million). Authorities have told the press that they expect both hospitals and their combined 2,300 beds to be operational within half a month.

Even though researchers have purportedly cast doubt on the theory that the coronavirus didn’t make the jump from animals to humans thanks to a shady food market that trafficking in live wild animals, officials in Beijing announced Sunday that the sale of live wild animals, including bats and snakes, at markets, supermarkets, restaurants, and e-commerce platforms. But we thought eating bats was a delicacy and an ingrained cultural practice not to be criticized or stifled?

As we reported last night (Sunday morning in Beijing), health officials in Hubei Province confirmed thirteen more deaths on Saturday, while another was reported in Henan Province. Perhaps most alarmingly, last night, we learned that a patient has reportedly succumbed to the virus in Shanghai as well. In that case, the victim was an 88-year-old man who was suffering from preexisting health issues. AFP adds that 40 cases have been confirmed in the city: 37 stable, one critical, one recovered, and one (88yo man with comorbidities) died. They are also investigating 95 additional suspected cases. These weren’t the first deaths outside of Hubei, but, according to the New York Times, “the death in Shanghai, which is among China’s most populous cities and a major commercial hub, is likely to add to anxieties about the disease’s spread.”

Over in the US, officials confirmed a third case of nCoV early Sunday. The patient is being treated in isolation at a hospital in Orange County, Calif., a wealthy suburban California county known for its (relative) conservatism. The CDC notified health officials in the county that the patient had tested positive on Saturday, according to a statement obtained by CNN. The individual is said to be in “good condition”. State and federal officials are tracking down anybody who might have had contact with the patient, who recently traveled from Wuhan to the US. Two previous cases were confirmed in Illinois and Washington state.

Additionally, Japan confirmed its fourth case of infection, Thailand confirmed its 8th case, Hong Kong confirmed its sixth case and Macau confirmed three new cases overnight. Paris has canceled a Lunar New Year parade

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Summary

  • First, nCoV death reported in Shanghai
  • South Korea confirms the third case
  • Toronto health officials to announce first ‘presumptive case’ of coronavirus in Canada
  • 1975 Cases Worldwide; 56 deaths (still about a 3% mortality rate)
  • 18 Chinese cities – 56 million people – quarantined
  • President Xi said China faces a ‘grave situation’ as the spread is ‘accelerating’
  • US and Russia planning evacuation of citizens from Wuhan
  • Australia and Malaysia join the list of global nations with nCoV cases, in addition to France, Pakistan, Singapore, the US and Nepal
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping empowered local governments and said teams from Beijing will be sent to severely impacted areas to strengthen front-line prevention and containment
  • The US and France chartered planes to evacuate diplomats and nationals in containment zones
  • The director of the CDC says she expects cases of human-to-human transmission in the US
  • China banned all domestic tour groups immediately and overseas group tours from Jan 27
  • Starbucks and China said they were closing some stores in China
  • Wuhan is building a second emergency hospital, this one with 1300 beds
  • 3 doctors in Beijing who visited Wuhan are confirmed to have the virus

AFP reported the Shanghai cases late yesterday in the US, but the American press has, for some reason, neglected to emphasize, or even mention, this alarming factoid. We suspect it could have something to do with the stock market.

Across China, 688 new cases of the virus were diagnosed on Saturday. Some experts suspect that Beijing is concealing the true number of confirmed cases for fear of sparking ‘social panic’, just like the leadership did during the SARS outbreak in 2003 (which is what necessitated all of their promises of “transparency” in the first place).

This would also partially explain the vast discrepancies in case counts between the WHO, and media organizations like SCMP, which has consistently led the world in confirming new cases.

Regardless of the circumstances, Beijing’s first priority will always be ‘maintain social stability’ – no matter the cost, in lives or money. As one twitter wit argued, it looks like the medical field is going to have to learn this lesson the hard way.

THE LONG VIEW @HayekAndKeynes

Nobody trusts Chinese economic data but everybody is now relying on their healthcare data…

the medical field is going to learn this the hard way, the same way the finance community has had to7823:40 PM – Jan 25, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy172 people are talking about this

Despite all this, Pope Francis weighed in on the outbreak on Sunday, praising China’s efforts to contain the outbreak, and praying for the dead and the sick.

“I would like also to be close and to pray for the people who are sick because of the virus that has spread through China,” Francis told tens of thousands of onlookers gathered in St. Peter’s Square for his weekly homily and blessing. “May the Lord welcome the dead into his peace, comfort families and sustain the great commitment by the Chinese community that has already been put in place to combat the epidemic.”

Across Asia, prices of protective facemasks have stayed elevated amid rampant price-gouging.

There were a few updates on China’s expanding lockdown overnight. The eastern province of Shandong, with a population of 100 million, is the latest to announce that it will suspend long-distance bus service, following similar announcements in Tianjin, Beijing, and Xi’an. Sunday marks the beginning of a ban on all private vehicles traveling through Wuhan as authorities expand the quarantine/lockdown, which will remain in place indefinitely until the outbreak is truly ‘contained’. Amid the lockdown, South Korea, the US, Russia, France, and other governments have hatched plans to evacuate their citizens from Wuhan.

At least two Chinese provinces and three cities have ordered citizens to wear face masks in public, according to Al Jazeera.

And Reuters reports that a manufacturing hub in Suzhou expects its businesses to remain closed until at least Feb. 8, the latest reminder that when all is said and done, this outbreak will likely take a bite out of Chinese GDP (though whether the leadership decides to publicize the true extent of the deceleration in growth remains to be seen).

And as Wuhan continues to suffer from a withering shortage of medical supplies, one resident told the AFP that the entire city has been infected with pervasive despair.

“In the past week, we’ve not been able to go out and buy anything to eat,” Mashal Jamalzai, a political science student from Afghanistan told AFP. “We want to be evacuated as soon as possible, because their the virus, the hunger or the fear will kill us.”

The measure is required in the provinces of Guangdong in the south and Jiangxi in the center, plus the eastern city of Nanjing, Ma’anshan city in Anhui province and Xinyang city in Henan, according to local authorities.

After Friday’s selloff, we imagine investors will be paying close attention to news out of Wuhan as it completely overshadows other ‘important’ domestic news stories, like the Dems impeachment debacle, or the fact that Bernie Sanders is now on track to win Iowa and New Hampshire. Source: HNewsWire zerohedge.com/

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HNewsWire Update: 1/26/2020 at 12:03 AM, The fourth horseman of the Apocalypse will bring further warfare and terrible famines along with awful plagues and diseases. What is most amazing, or perhaps terrifying, is that the four horsemen of the Apocalypse are just “precursors” of even worse judgments that come later in the tribulation (Revelation chapters 8–9 and 16)…

Wuhan coronavirus death toll rises to 56 as health care workers say medical supplies are running out

Fifty-six people have been killed by the novel coronavirus in China, health officials said Saturday. Over 1,900 confirmed cases have been reported across the country.

China’s state-run Xinhua news agency reported that 237 patients are in critical condition.

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Health care workers in the Chinese city of Wuhan say hospitals are running low on supplies as they treat an increasing number of patients.

The Chinese central government announced it would send more than 1,200 health workers — as well as 135 People’s Liberation Army medical personnel — to the city in an unprecedented effort to contain the spread of the virus.

Lunar New Year celebrations — the country’s most important holiday — have been greatly impacted in Beijing, Hong Kong and other major cities due to the virus. Nearly 60 million people are under partial lockdown in the province of Hubei.

While most confirmed cases of the virus are in China, more countries around the world, including France, Australia, and the United States are reporting their first cases. They are among 13 places outside mainland China where the virus has been confirmed.

In Wuhan, ground zero for the virus, four health care workers — including doctors — have told CNN of the difficulties facing medical crews on the ground. They have asked to remain anonymous to avoid repercussions.

Through telephone conversations with CNN and posts on Chinese social media, they told of low hospital resources. In private groups online, those identified as hospital staff are coordinating with members of the public to import protective equipment as they treat an increasing number of infected patients.

“In terms of resources, the whole of Wuhan is lacking,” one Wuhan-based health care worker told CNN by phone. This person said they were looking for more protective clothing, protective goggles, and masks.

“It’s really like we’re going into battle stripped to the waist,” one health care worker added, using a Chinese idiom that equates to “going into battle without armor”.

One hospital staff member claims health care workers have resorted to wearing diapers to work so as to avoid having to remove their hazmat suits, which they say are in short supply. A doctor on her Chinese social media Weibo page described similar accounts at another Wuhan hospital.

“My family members are definitely worried about me, but I still have to work,” another doctor said. But she said that she is hopeful they will ultimately get the gear they need. “Our bosses, our hospital suppliers will definitely find a way to get these stocks to us,” she added.

It’s not clear if these accounts are anecdotal or whether there are widespread shortages across Wuhan.

Chinese state media has also shared posts from multiple Wuhan hospitals in which they ask for public donations of medical supplies. They report that one hospital staff member said the current supplies “are only able to sustain three or four days.”

The Wuhan Health Commission has requisitioned over 10,000 beds from 24 hospitals to be used in the treatment of confirmed and suspected cases.

On Friday, Wuhan officials acknowledged that local hospitals were struggling to accommodate people seeking medical attention and said measures were being put into place to alleviate the situation.

State media also reported that the city aims to build a 25,000 square-meter (269,100 square-foot) new facility within a week, increasing hospital capacity by 1,000 beds and that several medical centers in Hubei province are asking for medical gear donations.

This is a pestilence and no one should tell the people differently, while most of the social media continues to shadow ban HNewsWire preventing people from knowing the truth, the truth that would help protect their families and friends from this virus. ABC News went as far as to show people in China celebrating, High-Tech & Reddit Engaged in Heavy Censorship of Truthful News Sources …

By February 5, 2020, there will be an estimated 300,000 infected by the coronavirus, and people on twitter want to talk about the Nike slipper.


Summary

  • Toronto health officials to announce first ‘presumptive case’ of coronavirus in Canada
  • 1497 Cases Worldwide; 56 Deaths: 3% official mortality rate (SARS was 11%)
  • 18 Chinese cities – 56 million people – quarantined
  • President Xi said China faces a ‘grave situation’ as the spread is ‘accelerating’
  • US and Russia planning evacuation of citizens from Wuhan
  • Australia and Malaysia join the list of global nations with nCoV cases, in addition to France, Pakistan, Singapore, the US and Nepal
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping empowered local governments and said teams from Beijing will be sent to severely impacted areas to strengthen front-line prevention and containment
  • The US and France chartered planes to evacuate diplomats and nationals in containment zones
  • The director of the CDC says she expects cases of human-to-human transmission in the US
  • China banned all domestic tour groups immediately and overseas group tours from Jan 27
  • Starbucks and China said they were closing some stores in China
  • Wuhan is building a second emergency hospital, this one with 1300 beds
  • 3 doctors in Beijing who visited Wuhan are confirmed to have the virus

Source: CNN HNewsWire

Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China…

HNewsWire Updated: January 18, 2020, 8:45 AM

Original publication date: January 7, 2020

Current situation

On December 31st, 2019 a cluster of cases of pneumonia was reported in Wuhan, China. Recent information has confirmed a novel (or new) coronavirus as the likely cause. Symptoms have included fever, cough and difficulty breathing. Most cases have been linked to the Huanan Seafood Market (also known as Wuhan South China Seafood City and South China Seafood Wholesale Market). The market has been closed as of January 1, 2020, for cleaning and disinfection.Some cases have not been linked to this market, and the source of the virus is still unknown.

Screening measures have been implemented at ports of entry in some neighboring countries for passengers arriving from Wuhan.

There have been reports of individuals infected with the novel coronavirus outside of China who had recently traveled to Wuhan.

At this time, there is no clear evidence of spread from person to person; however, the limited person-to-person spread may be possible.

The risk to Canadians visiting Wuhan is assessed as low.

The Public Health Agency of Canada is actively monitoring the situation and working with the World Health Organization (WHO) and other international partners to gather additional information. Our recommendations may change as new information becomes available.

About coronaviruses

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that cause respiratory illnesses. Some coronaviruses can cause no or mild illness, like the common cold, but other coronaviruses can cause severe illness, like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV).

Some human coronaviruses spread easily between people, while others do not.

Your risk of severe disease may be higher if you have a weakened immune system. This may be the case for:

  • older people
  • people with chronic disease (for example diabetes, cancer, heart, renal, or chronic lung disease)

There are no specific treatments for illnesses caused by human coronaviruses. Most people with common human coronavirus illness will recover on their own.

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Recommendations for travelers to Wuhan city

Chinese New Year officially begins on January 25, 2020. During this time, the number of travelers is expected to significantly increase. Spending time in large crowds or crowded areas can increase your risk of getting sick.

Travelers should take precautions against respiratory and other illnesses while traveling, and seek medical attention if they become sick.

During your trip:

  • Avoid high-risk areas such as farms, live animal markets, and areas where animals may be slaughtered.
  • Avoid contact with animals (alive or dead), including pigs, chickens, ducks and wild birds.
  • Avoid surfaces with animal droppings or secretions on them.
  • Avoid contact with sick people, especially if they have a fever, cough, or difficulty breathing.

Travelers are reminded to follow the usual health precautions:

Wash your hands often

  • Wash your hands often with soap under warm running water for at least 20 seconds.
  • Use alcohol-based hand sanitizer only if soap and water are not available. It’s a good idea to always keep some with you when you travel.

Practice proper cough and sneeze etiquette:

  • Cover your mouth and nose with your arm to reduce the spread of germs.
  • If you use a tissue, dispose of it as soon as possible and wash your hands afterward.

Monitor your health:

If you become sick when you are traveling or after you return, avoid contact with others except to see a health care professional. Tell them:

  • your symptoms;
  • where you have been traveling or living;
  • if you have had direct contact with animals (for example: visited a live animal market) or close contact with a sick person.

If you feel sick during your flight to Canada or upon arrival, inform the flight attendant or a Canadian border services officer.

India issues travel advisory out of ‘abundant caution’ as new coronavirus takes hold in China

FILE PHOTO. ©  Reuters / Bobby Yip

RT

Indians traveling to and from China have been warned of a dangerous new virus on the move in the country, with officials boosting security and health screenings at Indian airports in an effort to catch new cases of the illness.

The emergent coronavirus – related to the lethal SARS pathogen – has struck scores of people across China, hitting the city of Wuhan the hardest, with up to 40 confirmed cases, prompting the Indian Ministry of Health to issue a travel advisory on Friday.

While the World Health Organization has assessed the infection as “low” risk, India’s health ministry warned anyone traveling to China “as a matter of abundant precaution.”

The mode of transmission of the disease is unclear as of now. However, so far there is little evidence of significant human-to-human transmission.

NewsMobile@NewsMobileIndia

Union Ministry of #Health and Family Welfare has issued a travel advisory for travelers visiting China, in the view of the Novel coronavirus outbreak in #China. @MoHFW_INDIA

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18:01 AM – Jan 17, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacySee NewsMobile’s other Tweets

The advisory follows a similar decision by US health officials, who began screenings for the bug at three major airports on Friday afternoon after it claimed its second casualty in Wuhan.ALSO ON RT.COMPassengers at 3 major US airports to be screened for deadly Chinese VIRUS

While India’s health officials stressed the move was merely a precautionary safeguard, researchers at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London estimated that there could be as many as 1,723 cases in Wuhan alone, dwarfing the few dozen confirmed patients.

Several other suspected cases of the virus have cropped up elsewhere in Asia, with reports of the illness in Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea, largely involving people who had recently traveled to Wuhan.ALSO ON RT.COMLethal SARS-linked coronavirus claims first life as China’s pneumonia outbreak infects dozens

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

Professor NM FergusonImperial College London

Abstract

The continued threat posed by emerging infectious diseases has been highlighted in recent years by the emergence of MERS-coronavirus in the Middle East, Ebola in West Africa and Zika in Latin America. Preparedness, therefore, remains a policy priority for public health agencies and governments worldwide. In addition, as new vaccines, drugs, and other interventions are developed for endemic diseases such as malaria, HIV and TB, there is a need to extrapolate from clinical trial results to determine which combination of interventions gives the optimal (or most cost-effective) control strategy for a specific disease in a particular setting. In this context, modern epidemiological modeling and analysis methods have proven themselves increasingly powerful tools for giving insight into the patterns of emergence of novel outbreaks, the transmission dynamics of endemic diseases and the options available for the control of both.

The Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis is a world leader in research in this area, and in translating our research into improved public-health decision-making. Since it was founded, MRC funding has supported this translation by facilitating the forging of close partnerships with all major global health organizations (e.g. WHO, PHE, CDC, BMGF, The Global Fund, Gavi) and research centers and public health agencies in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Continued funding for the Centre will allow existing partnerships to be sustained and enhanced, and new collaborations with researchers and health agencies in LMICs to be developed. By supporting Ph.D. training and postdoctoral career development, it will also continue to expand the UK skill base in mathematical modeling and advanced analysis applied to health problems. Last, continued MRC support will pump-prime new priority research areas, including work on improving the development of new vaccines and on tackling the global challenge posed by antimicrobial resistance.

Lay abstract

The continuing threat from new infectious diseases has been highlighted in recent years by the emergence of MERS-coronavirus in the Middle East, Ebola in West Africa and Zika in Latin America. Preparing for and responding to such threats is a priority for public health agencies and governments worldwide. Equally importantly, as scientific research delivers new approaches to controlling existing infectious diseases such as malaria, HIV, tuberculosis, and polio, there is a need to determine what interventions are likely to work best to limit the disease and illness caused by a specific disease in a particular setting. In this context, computer modeling of the spread of diseases in populations coupled with scientifically rigorous data analysis have proven themselves as powerful tools for giving insight into how diseases spread and what can be done to limit that control that spread.

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The Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis undertakes research on these scientific methods and applies them to disease threats of concern. A key feature of the Centre is the close links it has made with public health agencies – such as the Public Health England, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO) – organizations which have to formulate and implement strategies to control infectious diseases. Senior scientists in the Centre are world-leaders in infectious disease modeling and analysis. They have broad experience in responding to real epidemics, and undertaking epidemiological research on endemic diseases (such as malaria, HIV, tuberculosis, and polio). Their work directly influences disease control policy through the many interactions the Centre has with public health organizations and governments. Funding provided by MRC and Imperial College has allowed dedicated investment into the development of close collaborative partnerships with PHE, CDC and WHO and governments and research centers in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). We also work closely with other important organizations that work on improving health in LMICs (notably the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation…

The Global Fund and Gavi). With each, our collaborative research has both scientific interests to Centre researchers and contributes to the evidence base for public health decisions. Centre funding supports a core technical capacity available to all projects and pays for dedicated liaison staff who facilitate and enhance our partnerships with major global health organizations and LMICs. MRC funding has also facilitated a greater focus on collaboration, training and career development within the Centre – training the next generation of quantitative infectious disease epidemiologists. We are also involved in increasing knowledge of advanced modeling methods in public health institutions and the wider infectious disease research community, and so have run a large number of introductory short-courses and workshops (in 13 countries in the last 5 years) This applied activity depends on more fundamental research undertaken in the Centre on the transmission dynamics of different diseases, how diseases evolve genetically over time, and on analyzing new approaches to control or treat diseases.

This research is interdisciplinary, with Centre researchers working with leading clinical and experimental scientists around the world. Continued Centre funding will allow existing partnerships to be sustained and enhanced, and new collaborations with researchers and health agencies in LMICs to be developed. By supporting Ph.D. training and postdoctoral career development, it will also continue to expand the UK skill base in mathematical modeling and advanced analysis applied to health problems. Last, continued MRC support will pump-prime new priority research areas, including work on improving the development of new vaccines and on tackling the global challenge posed by antimicrobial resistance.

Viruses

The number of people already infected by the mystery virus emerging in China is far greater than official figures suggest, scientists have told the BBC.

There have been nearly 50 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, but UK experts estimate a figure nearer 1,700.

Two people are known to have died from respiratory illness, which appeared in Wuhan city in December.

“I am substantially more concerned than I was a week ago,” disease outbreak scientist Prof Neil Ferguson, said.

The work was conducted by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London, which advises bodies including the UK government and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Singapore and Hong Kong have been screening air passengers from Wuhan, and US authorities announced similar measures starting on Friday at three major airports in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York.

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How were the numbers calculated?

The crucial clue to the scale of the problem lies in the cases being detected in other countries.

While the outbreak is centered on the central Chinese city of Wuhan, there have been two cases in Thailand and one in Japan.

“That caused me to worry,” said Prof Ferguson.

He added: “For Wuhan to have exported three cases to other countries would imply there would have to be many more cases than have been reported.”

It is impossible to get the precise number, but outbreak modeling, which is based on the virus, the local population and flight data, can give an idea.

Wuhan International Airport serves a population of 19 million people, but only 3,400 a day travel internationally.

The detailed calculations, which have been posted online ahead of publication in a scientific journal, came up with a figure of 1,700 cases.Skip Twitter post by @MRC_Outbreak

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis@MRC_Outbreak

🔰

Size of Wuhan outbreak of a novel #coronavirus estimated from the three cases detected outside China: Likely to be over 1000 cases. @imperialcollege @mrc_outbreaks report released today

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news–wuhan-coronavirus/ …

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4558:18 AM – Jan 17, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy618 people are talking about thisReport

End of a Twitter post by @MRC_Outbreak

What does it all mean?

Prof Ferguson said it was “too early to be alarmist” but he was “substantially more concerned” than a week ago.

Chinese officials say there have been no cases of the virus spreading from one person to another.

Instead they say the virus has crossed the species barrier and come from infected animals at a seafood and wildlife market in Wuhan.

Prof Ferguson argues: “People should be considering the possibility of substantial human-to-human transmission more seriously than they have so far.

“It would be unlikely in my mind, given what we know about coronaviruses, to have animal exposure, be the principal cause of such a number of human infections.”

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Understanding how a novel virus is spreading is a crucial part of assessing its threat.

The WHO’s China office said the analysis was helpful and would help officials plan the response to the outbreak.

“Much remains to be understood about the new coronavirus,” it said. “Not enough is known to draw definitive conclusions about how it is transmitted, the clinical features of the disease, the extent to which it has spread, or its source, which remains unknown.”

Wuhan
Image captionThe outbreak occurred in the city of Wuhan, south of Beijing
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What is this virus?

Viral samples have been taken from patients and analyzed in the laboratory.

And officials in China and the World Health Organization have concluded the infection is a coronavirus.

Coronaviruses are a broad family of viruses, but only six (the new one would make it seven) are known to infect people.

At the mild end, they cause the common cold, but severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) is a coronavirus that killed 774 of the 8,098 people infected in an outbreak that started in China in 2002.

Analysis of the genetic code of the new virus shows it is more closely related to Sars than any other human coronavirus.Skip Twitter post by @EcoHealthNYC

EcoHealth Alliance@EcoHealthNYC

Preliminary analysis of the novel coronavirus (in red) believed to be responsible for an outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan, China shows it’s closely related to SARS CoV. https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/2020/01/phylogenetic-analysis-shows-novel-wuhan-coronavirus-clusters-with-sars …

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10912:21 PM – Jan 11, 2020Twitter Ads info and privacy106 people are talking about thisReport

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The virus has caused pneumonia in some patients and been fatal in two of them.

What do other experts say?

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Dr Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome medical research charity, said: “There is more to come from this epidemic.

“Uncertainty and gaps remain, but it’s clear that there is some level of person-to-person transmission.

Media captionCoronavirus feared to have infected more than initially thought, according to scientists

“We are starting to hear of more cases in China and other countries and it is likely, as this modelling shows, that there will be many more cases in a number of countries.”

Prof Jonathan Ball, from the University of Nottingham, said: “What’s really important is until there has been widespread laboratory testing it is very difficult to put a real number on the cases out there.

“But this is a figure we should take seriously until we know otherwise, 41 animal-to-human ‘spillovers’ is stretching it a bit and there probably is more underlying infection than has been detected so far.”

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The fourth horseman of the Apocalypse will bring further warfare and terrible famines along with awful plagues and diseases. What is most amazing, or perhaps terrifying, is that the four horsemen of the Apocalypse are just “precursors” of even worse judgments that come later in the tribulation (Revelation chapters 8–9 and 16).

China reports 4 more cases in viral pneumonia outbreak

AP is Reporting

21 minutes ago

Pedestrians wear protective masks as they walk through a shopping district in Tokyo Thursday, Jan. 16, 2020. Japan’s government said Thursday a man treated for pneumonia after returning from China has tested positive for the new coronavirus identified as a possible cause of an outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)

BEIJING (AP) — Four more cases have been identified in a viral pneumonia outbreak in a central Chinese city that has killed two people and prompted the United States and others to take precautionary measures.

The latest cases bring to 45 the number of people who have contracted the illness, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission said Saturday. Five are in serious condition.

The cause of pneumonia has been traced to a new type of coronavirus.

Health authorities are keen to avoid a repeat of SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, which started in southern China in late 2002 and spread to more than two dozen countries, killing nearly 800 people.

The U.S. announced Friday it would begin screening passengers at three major airports arriving on flights from Wuhan.

At least a half-dozen countries in Asia also have started screening incoming airline passengers from central China. The list includes Thailand and Japan, which both have reported cases of the disease in people who had come from Wuhan. Travel is unusually heavy right now as people take trips to and from China to celebrate the Lunar New Year.

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The detection of the virus in Japan adds to fears that it will spread outside China’s borders after a case was also reported in Thailand this week.

A seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China, now shut down, where some people appear to have contracted the new coronavirus.
A seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China, now shut down, where some people appear to have contracted the new coronavirus. Credit…Noel Celis/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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The World Health Organization has confirmed that a woman traveling from China to Thailand is infected with a SARS-like mystery virus at the heart of an outbreak in Wuhan.

An image of the new SARS-like coronavirus (Photo: GISAID)
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The woman was hospitalized January 8, making it the first confirmed case of the new coronavirus detected outside China.

The possibility of cases being identified in other countries was not unexpected and reinforces why WHO calls for ongoing active monitoring and preparedness in other countries,” the WHO said in a statement.

In total, 41 people have been diagnosed with the new virus, while a 61-year-old man has died according to the Wuhan municipal health commission. Seven patients have been discharged while six remains in critical condition, reports The Guardian.

Meanwhile, a team of Hong Kong experts few to Wuhan on Monday to meet with health officials as seven suspected cases have been reported in the city across six hospitals. All had been to the mainland city of Wuhan in the past two weeks, after which they developed a fever, respiratory infection or pneumonia symptoms. Of note, none of them had visited the meat markets linked to the outbreak.

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StevieRay Hansen
Editor, HNewsWire.com

The Birth Pains Are Growing Stronger….

One of the signs of ruling class collapse is when they can no longer enforce the rules that maintain them as a ruling class. When the Romans started making exceptions to republican governance, it was a matter of time before someone simply decided the rules no longer applied to them. Perhaps the robot historians will consider Obama our Marius or Sulla. Maybe that person is in the near future. Either way, the rule of law is over and what comes next is the rule of men.

“Man will ultimately be governed by God or by tyrants.” as in Nancy Pelosi (D-San Fran-feces)

Our government has been overthrown. As evidenced by Trump’s capitulation on the border, his recent servitude to the GMO industry and his acquiescence to the warmongers, our President has been compromised. Our liberties are being eliminated one by one. Gun confiscation is next. The Constitution is gasping its last breaths. Our borders are destroyed and our culture has been turned upside down by every perversion known to man.

The watchman does not confuse truth with consensus. The Watchman does not confuse God’s word with the word of those who happen to hold power at present, or with the opinion of the majority. This is because powerholders and the majority can fall victim to a lying spirit-and this means a power that actually seizes the majority of experts, the political leadership, and the public.

They are tolerant of everything except dissenting values and opinions — meaning, of course, they are tolerant of nothing that matters, only themselves.”

Let Me Make This Abundantly Clear. (I Am Apolitical) While I Have a General Distaste for Electric Cars and Politicians No Matter the Party They Belong To, I Am Unashamedly Politically a Bible Believing Conservative Christian. I Have a Severe Distrust of Government. I Believe It Is the Most Inefficient and Ineffective Way to Accomplish Most Things. While I Strongly Disagree with Liberals/Progressives and Conservative on Most Political Issues, and While I Believe Liberals/Progressives and Most Politicians Are Misguided and Naive About What Big Government Will Eventually Result In, I Strive to Not Question Their Motives. At the Same Time, I Find Myself in Agreement with Conservative on Some Issues, and I Do Not Believe Electing Republicans Is the Answer to Everything. Sadly, the Main Difference Between Republicans and Democrats Is How Quickly They Want to Drive the Car Towards the Cliff. Put, I Do Not Believe the Government Is the Solution for Everything. I Do Not Place Any Faith, Trust, or Hope in Any Politicians to Fix What Is Wrong with the World. “Come Lord Jesus!” (Revelation 22:20)

The Watchman does not confuse truth with consensus. The watchman does not confuse God’s word with the word of those who happen to hold power at present, or with the opinion of the majority. This is because powerholders and the majority can fall victim to a lying spirit-and; this means a power that seizes the majority of experts, the political leadership, and the public.StevieRay Hansen

Pestilence, virus, China, epidemic, Four Horseman, Bible Truth,

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StevieRay Hansen

In his riveting memoir, "A Long Journey Home", StevieRay Hansen will lead you through his incredible journey from homeless kid to multimillionaire oilman willing to give a helping hand to other throwaway kids. Available on Amazon.

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